Germany’s economy is stagnating, pension bills are surging, the peace dividend has been exhausted, and global instability is now adding one more risk for the country’s youth: military service.

A law headed for Cabinet approval on Wednesday seeks to boost Bundeswehr recruitment to help deter Russia and defend European allies. Enlistment will be voluntary at first, but the legislation includes a provision that could revive conscription if numbers fall short.

Despite the high wages at one of Europe’s best-paid armed forces, Germany’s military recruitment last year was less than half the rate targeted by 2031. Sluggish enlistment and high dropout rates have put pressure on Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s administration to act, and talks over security guarantees in Ukraine — which would ultimately involve allied troops — add even more urgency.

While Germany’s partners welcome rearmament, the issue is divisive at home. Supporters say the country needs to be prepared to defend itself and the liberal order. While that jars with postwar pacifist traditions, the biggest hurdle is among those who may actually have to risk their lives.

Burdened by climate change and a fragile economy, German youth are showing little interest in defending a social and political system that’s not working for them. With the prosperity of older generations seemingly out of reach, under 25-year-olds are even more polarized than the rest of the country — voting primarily for opposition parties on the far right or far left in the last election.

Of all EU countries without conscription, Germany was the last to abolish it in 2011. Since then, the Bundeswehr was known for poor equipment, cost overruns and right-wing scandals. That makes a turnaround all the more difficult.

For many young people, joining the military feels like just another sacrifice forced on them by the government. Yet those who enlist by choice often find stability and comforts they couldn’t secure elsewhere.

That’s the case for Colin B. Tall, blond and with downy cheeks, the 22-year-old joined the Bundeswehr in March, after being unsatisfied with what he earned at his previous company, where he worked after finishing a traineeship in management.

“It’s a secure employer with good pay,” said Colin, who isn’t being identified with his full name in accordance with German military policy. “You can’t do much wrong with it.”

Tracking schedules for his colleagues in aviation control, his work is like any other office job aside from the camouflage uniform — and perks like extensive sports facilities and benefits like free accommodation, food and public transit.

The German military indeed offers generous conditions, and the salary for new recruits is set to increase by a third to more than 2,300 euros ($2,700) a month under the new law. Even before that increase, net pay was often more than double what young people could earn at vocational traineeships, like the one that Colin completed.

Despite those financial incentives — and widespread image campaigns — the Bundeswehr is not a popular choice. Although recruiting is set to increase by 50% to 15,000 volunteers this year, the country is targeting 40,000 — achieving that number would cost an extra 24 million euro a month just for salary increases.

Skepticism remains high. The share of people who say they would definitely defend Germany if it’s attacked is as low as 16%, according to a survey by Forsa from August. By global standards, Germans are among the least likely to want to fight for their country, according to a 2024 Gallup poll.

The new law, which would go into effect in January if passed by parliament, aims to change that by requiring 18-year-old men to complete a questionnaire about their health, skills and willingness to serve. The aim is to make them engage with the Bundeswehr and the notion of enlisting.

Beginning in July 2027, the process will include a mandatory medical checkup. The bill also contains a clause allowing conscription to be introduced if recruitment targets aren’t met — and provided parliament agrees.

Both supporters and opponents of the legislation agree that reaching recruitment targets — aimed at eventually increasing troop strength by 75% to 460,000 soldiers — is unlikely. But proponents of a more robust military argue that Germany can’t afford to wait.

“If we only introduce conscription in the event of an escalating military crisis, it loses its usefulness as a deterrent,” Norbert Röttgen, a CDU politician and member of the Bundestag’s foreign affairs committee, said in a written response to Bloomberg questions.

In an early taste of a future fight over conscription, opponents of the bill argue that the government is already going too far. The Bundeswehr directly reaching out to teenagers risks becoming a form of manipulation, according to Ingar Solty, senior research fellow at the Rosa Luxemburg foundation — a group affiliated with the anti-military Left party.

“We talk a lot about people who were pacifists and have come to see that the military is important, but hardly at all about those who now want to get out because they’re afraid,” he said.

Conscription would also be an expensive trade-off for the German economy. The Ifo institute calculated that it would cost 70 billion euros if military service becomes compulsory for everyone, mainly due to income losses from young people joining the labor market later.

The Bundeswehr has attempted a variety of marketing strategies to increase interest. They’ve ranged from a web series about the daily lives of recruits to presenting at the world’s largest fitness trade show in Cologne — and ads on bakery bags.

But none of these initiatives are enough to overcome deep divisions in German society. Buffeted by a series of crises from the pandemic and migration to recession and inequality, the country’s commitment to democracy and subsequent willingness to defend it has been shaken, giving way to rising ethnic nationalism and authoritarian sentiment.

“Democracy as a concept is not as popular right now as it should be,” said Niklas Schörnig, senior research fellow at the Peace Research Institute Frankfurt.

In this year’s national election, more than one in five under 25-year-olds voted for the far-right Alternative for Germany, or AfD, which has been labeled as right-wing extremist by Germany’s domestic intelligence service.

But unlike many of his peers, Colin believes in serving his country and he appreciates the stability and perks that come with military life.

“We have a lot,” he said. “I don't think you can ask for much more.”

Despite 24% of volunteers quitting last year — with criticism about boredom and inefficient management mounting — Colin is in it for the long haul and plans to stay on once his initial stint is over.

“Here feels like a second home,” he said.

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(With assistance from Michael Nienaber.)

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