Hurricane center keeps forecasting potential system near Florida

Richard Tribou, Orlando Sentinel on Jul 13, 2025

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The National Hurricane Center continued Sunday to predict a system could develop near Florida this week that could develop into the season’s next tropical depression or storm.

As of the NHC’s 2 p.m. tropical outlook, forecasters said a trough of low pressure is likely to form near the southeastern U.S. coast in the next day or two and then move west across the Florida peninsula and into the Gulf by Tuesday.

“Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of this system during the middle to late part of this week while it moves westward over the northeastern and north-central portions of the Gulf,” forecasters said,

The NHC gave it a 20% chance of development in the next seven days, the same as when it began forecasting the potential system on Saturday.

“Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized flash flooding over portions of Florida and the north-central Gulf coast through the mid to late portion of this week,” forecasters said,

If it were to spin up into a named storm, it could become Tropical Storm Dexter.

In Central Florida, the National Weather Service in Melbourne says some areas could get up to 2 inches of rain on Monday and Tuesday, and trailing moisture as the low moves west could keep it wet through midweek.

“Stronger storms will be capable of occasional to frequent lightning strikes and water loaded downdrafts which can produce localized gusty winds,” the NWS stated.

The state was previously doused by rains associated with what developed into Tropical Storm Chantal earlier this month. That storm ended up striking the Carolina coast and dumped flooding rains inland.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration had before the start of hurricane season forecast an expected 13 to 19 named storms for the year, of which 6-10 would grow into hurricanes. Three to five of those would develop into major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher.

Researchers out of Colorado State University this week, though, updated their forecast saying they expect the season to be slightly less busy than what they had predicted earlier this year.

Hurricane season runs June 1-Nov. 30.