Hurricane center ups odds on new Atlantic system, keeps track of 2nd

Richard Tribou, Orlando Sentinel on Aug 9, 2025

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ORLANDO, Fla. — The National Hurricane Center on Saturday increased the odds a new tropical wave that has ventured into the Atlantic will develop while also keeping track of a second system that could become the season’s next tropical depression or storm.

As of the NHC’s 2 p.m. tropical advisory, the new system was just offshore of the west coast of Africa and was producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

“Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by the middle to latter portion of next week while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic,” forecasters said.

Local heavy rainfall could hit the Cape Verde Islands Sunday and Monday as it heads west for an uncertain path.

The NHC increased chances for development since it first began tracking the system Friday. It now forecasts a 40% chance it will develop in the next seven days.

The NHC decreased the odds, though, for another tropical wave that has disorganized showers and thunderstorms in the central Atlantic.

“Development of this system appears unlikely during the next day or two due to surrounding dry air, but some gradual development is possible during the early or middle part of next week while the system moves northwestward to northward across the central Atlantic,” forecasters said.

The NHC gave it a 20% chance to develop in the next seven days.

The next names on the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season list are Erin and Fernand.

The season so far has produced four tropical storms with the most recent, Tropical Storm Dexter, having moved through the North Atlantic this week where it was no threat to land.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration this week updated its season forecast now calling for 13-18 named storms for the year, of which five to nine would grow into hurricanes. Two to five of those would develop into major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher.

The height of hurricane season runs from mid-August into October.

The entire six-month season runs June 1 to Nov. 30.