Who would voters support in 2028? How Vance, Newsom and others fare in poll

Brendan Rascius, Miami Herald on Jul 30, 2025

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The 2028 presidential election is three years and countless news cycles away. But, voters already have clear preferences for several hopefuls, according to new polling.

The latest Emerson College survey created hypothetical 2028 match-ups between Vice President JD Vance, a Republican, and three prominent Democrats: California Gov. Gavin Newsom, New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.

The four individuals were chosen because they were among the top choices to serve as the Republican and Democratic nominees in a June poll.

Among GOP primary voters, Vance was the runaway favorite, garnering 46% support. Meanwhile, Democratic primary voters were more split, offering smaller shares of support to the three Democrats in addition to former Vice President Kamala Harris, who was not included in the latest poll.

Here is a breakdown of the results.

2028 match-ups

In the poll — which sampled 1,400 registered voters July 21 to 22 — the vast majority of respondents expressed support for a candidate, while just a small minority said they were undecided. And, in all three match-ups, Vance narrowly emerged victorious, though with enough undecided voters to sway the results.

In a Vance-Newsom match-up, 45% of voters said they would support the vice president, while 42% signaled they would back Newsom. An additional 13% said they were undecided.

Newsom has recently fueled speculation about a potential presidential run after he launched his own podcast and toured South Carolina, a state with a major role in the Democratic nomination process.

In the hypothetical Ocasio-Cortez-Vance race, the vice president again led by 3 points — 44% to 41%. This time, 15% said they were undecided, according to the poll, which has a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points.

Some view Ocasio-Cortez as a potential front-runner for the Democratic nomination, ready to carry forward the progressive legacy of Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, whom she has campaigned alongside on their “Fighting Oligarchy” tour.

But, the best-performing Democrat was Buttigieg, who previously ran for president in 2020 and has regularly appeared on Fox News to defend the Democratic agenda.

In the Vance-Buttigieg match-up, 44% of voters said they would support Vance, while 43% said the same for the former transportation secretary. Thirteen percent said they were undecided.

“A key takeaway from the ballot tests is that about 13% of the electorate remains persuadable, while the other 87% have already settled on a party preference,” Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson College Polling, concluded in the survey.