WASHINGTON — A demand Monday by the main union representing federal employees to end the partial government shutdown exposes a central trade-off for Democrats on Capitol Hill — fighting to extend health care subsidies to millions of Americans has left more than 1 million federal workers without pay.

It’s a bit of a catch-22 for Democrats. On one hand, dropping their blockade and allowing the government to reopen would certainly help out a key constituency and one that is suffering a direct financial hit during the shutdown.

But American Federation of Government Employees members will maintain access to federal health insurance benefits during the impasse without anything like the skyrocketing premiums more than 20 million others who depend on subsidized private plans purchased on government exchanges will experience.

Democrats, at least so far, have chosen to side with the far greater numbers of Americans facing a health insurance premium cliff when government support shrivels at the end of this year. It’s why their mantra has been negotiate with us now on the exchange subsidies and then we’ll agree to reopen the government, while Republicans have argued the opposite.

AFGE isn’t making it any easier for Democrats to hold firm, however, which Republicans gleefully noted Monday.

“Enough with the political games,” House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, R-Minn., said at a morning news conference. “Support our clean (continuing resolution) and reopen the government like your constituents’ livelihoods depend on it, because they do.”

In his statement Monday, Everett Kelley, AFGE national president, said that both sides have “made their point” and it’s time to reopen the federal government and give federal employees back pay.

“These are patriotic Americans — parents, caregivers, and veterans — forced to work without pay while struggling to cover rent, groceries, gas and medicine because of political disagreements in Washington,” he wrote. “That is unacceptable.”

Sen. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md. — whose state has the one the highest shares of federal employees in the country — said Democrats shouldn’t have to choose between constituencies and that Republicans and President Donald Trump could end the shutdown immediately if they wanted to.

“I’m committed to immediately reopening the government in a responsible way that prevents the illegal budget actions Trump has taken — including against our federal workers — and stops Americans’ health care costs from exploding,” Van Hollen said in a statement. “In the meantime, I’m also working to immediately pay all our federal employees and prevent this administration’s mass firings. Federal employees did not cause the shutdown, and they should not have to bear the brunt of it.”

Cheaper coverage

Endorsing a clean CR, though, may be the easier choice for the federal employees’ union, whose members largely receive their health care through the Federal Employees Health Benefits Program rather than through the exchanges.

Even though their premiums are rising faster than inflation, AFGE members aren’t exposed to the massive increase predicted for health exchange premiums those who use marketplace coverage created under the 2010 health care law.

Democrats expanded exchange subsidies in 2021, leading to an explosion in demand; they later extended those higher federal contributions through the end of this year. That’s become the central hangup in the shutdown battle between Democrats and Republicans, with the two parties caught in their chicken-or-egg fight — reopen first, or negotiate on health care first.

The relative generosity of FEHB plans versus “Obamacare” plans has been a political football since the early drafting stages of what became the 2010 law. The law’s expansion under President Joe Biden narrowed the disparity in financial contributions for beneficiaries, but expiration of the expanded subsidies threatens to widen that gap substantially.

Federal workers covered by FEHB plans still have to pay significant contributions for health coverage; the government typically covers 72% to 75% of premiums among the roughly 200 plans for employees to choose from.

According to the Office of Personnel Management, the average monthly premium for a 2026 FEHB “self plus one” plan is about $2,140, but the federal contribution brings the household’s share down to about $600. After taxes, that amount drops further as health care premiums are tax-deductible.

Overall premiums are increasing about 10% for 2026, OPM said, though the average enrollee’s share is rising by over 12%.

Compare that to a typical “silver” plan purchased on the exchanges: According to KFF, a nonpartisan health research group, a 60-year-old nonsmoking couple making $85,000 currently is paying about the same amount in premiums each month, or $600.

This couple’s marketplace plan premiums were already set to rise by 18%. But if the bigger tax credit expires, the net premiums paid by this couple out of pocket would more than triple to over $2,100 a month, according to KFF, assuming no self-employed deduction.

If they were self-employed, this couple could deduct their premiums, otherwise they cannot unless medical expenses exceed a certain percentage of income.

Across marketplace policyholders, KFF estimates average 2026 premiums will more than double on net if the tax credits aren’t renewed.

Political football

As far back as 2009, Republicans seeking to undermine “Obamacare” wanted to force federal officials and lawmakers to participate in the exchanges rather than maintain access to FEHB plans.

“The more that Congress experiences the laws we pass, the better the laws are likely to be,” Sen. Charles E. Grassley, R-Iowa, said at the time. He was one of the leaders of the GOP push to require members of Congress and their personal office staff to buy coverage on the exchanges, which ended up being included in the 2010 law.

Other federal workers weren’t covered by the Grassley amendment, however. Some Republicans sought to extend the restriction to then-President Barack Obama, then-Vice President Biden, political appointees and congressional aides not covered by the amendment, like committee staff, but were rebuffed.

On Monday, AFGE put a new spotlight on that divide between FEHB versus marketplace plans. How the Democrats navigate the issue could become a defining moment in the shutdown battle, which is nearly a month old.

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