David Murphy: Fear factor: Who should the Phillies fear this postseason? Let's rank the NL heavyweights.
Published in Baseball
PHILADELPHIA — I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: Anybody who attempts to predict the MLB postseason should only do so with an explicit acknowledgment that the MLB postseason is impossible to predict. Just ask the Dodgers, who have been the biggest, baddest team in the National League heading into virtually every postseason over the last six seasons. In four of those seasons, they’ve failed to make the World Series.
This year, there is no biggest, baddest team. You can make as strong an argument for the Phillies as you can for any team. Their biggest challenge this postseason is the sheer number of those teams. At the moment, I count the Phillies among a group of four teams that don’t have any decisive advantage over one another. I don’t count the Padres among those teams, but even they would present a unique challenge for the Phillies with their glut of right-handed sluggers matched up against (presumably) three lefty starters.
Let’s rank the other three franchises, in order:
1. Dodgers
It’s hard to believe that I feel bad about ranking the Dodgers this high. It’s been a rough second half at Chavez Ravine. The Dodgers entered Thursday with a 29-35 record since July 4. The Phillies just took two of three from them. Rarely have the Dodgers arrived in the second half of September looking this ordinary.
I don’t buy it. The Dodgers are still a team built for the postseason. They won’t be at a disadvantage against anybody on the starting pitching front, with some combination of Blake Snell (2.44 ERA), Yoshinobu Yamamoto (2.66 ERA), Tyler Glasnow (3.06 ERA), and Shohei Ohtani (3.20 ERA) in the first four games of a series. The bullpen has been an expensive disappointment, but the Dodgers will presumably be able to utilize hard-throwing righty Emmet Sheehan (3.17 ERA) and veteran lefty Clayton Kershaw (3.53 ERA) in some form.
Really, the eighth and ninth innings are the only area where the Dodgers are clearly beatable. Assuming Will Smith returns from a bruised hand, their lineup remains much as it was last postseason. Mookie Betts’ overall numbers are skewed by a brutal start to the season, but his numbers over the last couple of months have been typical.
2. Cubs
No disrespect to the Brewers — we’ll dive into them shortly — but the Cubs have something that the NL’s presumptive top seed doesn’t. Two somethings, actually. Lefty starters Shota Imanaga and Matthew Boyd both profile as a type of pitcher who can give the Phillies fits. They’ve each faced the Phillies once this season, and they’ve each logged a quality start, though the Cubs lost both games. Imanaga has held lefties to a .190/.256/.314 batting line this season. Boyd’s .592 OPS against lefties is only slightly higher, with just seven extra base hits and 42 strikeouts in 176 plate appearances.
A series against the Cubs would shine a huge spotlight on Nick Castellanos, who is 5 for 11 with three doubles in his career against Boyd and Imanaga. While the Cubs don’t have a clear postseason pecking order in their rotation, it would make sense to break up the lefties with rookie Cade Horton, who hasn’t allowed more than two runs in an outing since before the All-Star break (0.93 ERA in his last 11 starts). My guess would be Imanaga in Game 1, since Boyd has pitched better at home this season and has struggled over the last month.
Whatever the Cubs decide, their rotation matches up well enough against the Phillies to serve as a force multiplier. Their lineup is arguably the deepest in the National League, with eight of their nine regulars posting an OPS+ of at least 112.
It helps the Phillies that Cubs breakout star Pete Crow-Armstrong has been brutal against lefties this season (.593 OPS with 54 strikeouts in 164 at-bats). First baseman Michael Busch doesn’t see a lot of action against them. But Kyle Tucker is as good a lefty-on-lefty hitter as there is in baseball, with an .840 OPS and nearly even strikeout/walk numbers.
But the Cubs have a ton of balance in righties Nico Hoerner (.952 OPS v. LHP), Seiya Suzuki (.826), Dansby Swanson (.813), Carson Kelly (.798) and veteran Justin Turner (.779), the latter of whom can spell Busch at first base.
3. Brewers
Let me start with the reasons I don’t have the Brewers higher.
— They aren’t hot. They are 15-15 in their last 30 games. During that stretch, they’ve lost nine of 15 games to the Cubs, Phillies, Giants and Diamondbacks.
— They don’t have a big piece in their lineup. The 2016 Indians were the last team to win a league championship without a single player with an OPS+ of 125 or better. As of Thursday, 33-year-old Christian Yelich led the Brewers with a 124 OPS+.
— Their second-best starter is 12 starts into his return from shoulder surgery and has reached 90 pitches in just two of them.
— They didn’t win a postseason series last year.
— I may be biased.
I’ll admit that the last point may be the reason I’m focusing on the preceding points. I’m penalizing the Brewers for their lack of star power. But maybe I shouldn’t be.
The number that should scare the Phillies the most: .636. That’s the Brewers’ winning percentage against left-handed starters this season. Their 28-16 record is the best in baseball and by far the best in the National League. In fact, they are the only NL playoff team whose record against lefties isn’t dramatically worse than their overall record.
In Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee could have the second-best Game 1 starter in the field behind Cristopher Sánchez. In Brandon Woodruff, they have a former Cy Young finalist who has been mostly excellent since returning from the injured list in early July. In 23-year-old Jacob Misiorowski, they have a pitcher with some of the best stuff in the game who could potentially be deployed out of the bullpen, perhaps backing up Woodruff. In Abner Uribe and Trevor Megill, they have a couple of high leverage arms who have gotten the job done as well as any eighth-ninth-inning combo in the league.
The Brewers are going to be a tough out. Their 47-38 record against winning teams trails only the Phillies (47-36) and Blue Jays (49-38). But there are enough questions behind Peralta, and in the middle of the lineup, that I’ll need to actually see it to believe it.
But, then, what do I know?
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