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Orioles' Trevor Rogers bolsters Cy Young case in 4-2 win over Yankees

Jacob Calvin Meyer, The Baltimore Sun on

Published in Baseball

BALTIMORE — Two weeks ago, after Trevor Rogers was asked about being named the American League’s best pitcher in August, he was asked about his surprise Cy Young Award case despite missing the first two months of the season.

“I haven’t put a whole lot of thought to it,” Rogers said.

After another stellar outing Friday, Rogers has given voters no choice but to put a lot of thought into it.

Rogers twirled six masterful innings in the Orioles’ 4-2 win over the Yankees at Camden Yards. The left-hander carried a no-hit bid into the fifth inning, struck out seven and didn’t allow a run to lower his ERA to an otherworldly 1.35 through 17 starts to his resurgent season.

The 27-year-old began the season on the injured list after suffering a partially dislocated kneecap in the offseason. Externally, he wasn’t expected to contribute much to the rotation after the trade for him last summer soured quickly, resulting in his demotion to Triple-A and a journey to regain his confidence and velocity.

But since he made his season debut May 24 against the Red Sox in Boston and officially rejoined the rotation in mid-June, no pitcher in baseball has been better than Rogers.

With only 106 2/3 innings this season, it will be difficult for voters to choose Rogers over the other qualified candidates: Detroit’s Tarik Skubal, Houston’s Hunter Brown and Boston’s Garrett Crochet. But each voter gets to pick five pitchers, and it’s hard to imagine how Rogers, who also has a sparkling 0.87 WHIP and .178 batting average against, doesn’t get down-ballot consideration.

“With the season I’ve had and not being up here the whole year, just being in consideration for those types of things, it’s an honor,” Rogers said in early September.

Since 1920, Rogers’ 1.35 ERA is the second best among pitchers with at least 16 starts. Bob Gibson’s 1.12 ERA in 1968 — “The Year of the Pitcher” that resulted in rule changes to help hitters — is the only one better.

Rogers has allowed two or fewer runs in 15 consecutive starts. That is the longest such streak in franchise history and the longest by an MLB starter since Dodgers lefty Julio Urías between the 2022 and 2023 seasons. No pitcher in Orioles history — not even Jim Palmer — has begun a season with a sub-1.50 ERA through 17 starts.

“You’ve got to consider it,” Orioles interim manager Tony Mansolino said of Rogers’ Cy Young candidacy.

Baltimore’s bats backed up Rogers early with a solo homer from Ryan Mountcastle, his sixth of the season, off Yankees starter Will Warren in the second. The Orioles scored two more runs in the sixth on Mountcastle’s sacrifice fly and Samuel Basallo’s RBI groundout.

After Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s two-run homer off Dietrich Enns in the seventh, Gunnar Henderson’s 33rd double of the season scored Jordan Westburg on an aggressive one-out send from third base coach Buck Britton. Relievers Rico Garcia and Keegan Akin slammed the door for the victory.

Baltimore improved to 73-81 with the victory. The Orioles still have a slight chance to end the season with a .500 record if they win their remaining eight games.

Instant analysis

What else is there to say about Rogers at this point?

Maybe the baseball Gods are playing a cruel trick by giving Orioles fans a true ace, only to pull the rug out next season when the games actually matter. Or this is a real-life example of the Monstars from the movie “Space Jam,” and the powers of some Hall of Fame left-handed pitcher were drained and mystically transferred to Rogers.

 

Or maybe, just maybe, Rogers is actually this good.

His dominance can’t be understood by only looking at this season. This 17-start stretch by Rogers is one of the best by a left-handed pitcher in Major League Baseball history. Most of the greatest southpaws in the sport’s history have never posted a 1.35 ERA across 17 starts in a season. Warren Spahn, Lefty Grove, Whitey Ford, Randy Johnson, Tom Glavine, CC Sabathia and Tarik Skubal have never done it. Clayton Kershaw did it twice. Carl Hubbell, Steve Carlton, Johan Santana and Sandy Koufax each did it once.

Seeing Rogers’ name in the same fun fact as Koufax would have been laughable a year ago. Now it’s just Rogers’ reality.

What they’re saying

Mansolino on the Orioles’ coaching staff as an uncertain future lies ahead:

“I’m hoping that our coaches are recognized for the job that they’ve done here over the last four months. I was just informed, I guess we’re about to set a record for players used. I had no idea. They just asked me on the radio interview. But if we use that many players and we’ve traded everybody and done the whole deal, and our guys have played the way they have, I hope that reflects upon that coaching room in there. I really hope that it does, and they deserve it.

“I think we’ve just played better. There’s a lot of stuff that our staff has done in that room, and I don’t need to campaign for it. It’s evident if you watch the game every single night, it’ll show. There’s a lot of stuff that we’ve done, and it shows in the game and it shows in the record.”

By the numbers

Rogers entered Friday ranked second among AL pitchers in wins above average (WAA) at 4.7, slightly behind Skubal’s 4.8. Unlike wins above replacement, which rewards players who accumulate more playing time, WAA is better at assessing a player’s dominance during his time on the field.

But even WAA doesn’t tell the full story of how dominant Rogers has been this season. An adjusted version of the stat on Baseball-Reference called “waaWL%” converts a player’s WAA into a team winning percentage with the assumption that every other player on that hypothetical team is a league-average player. Entering Friday, Rogers’ waaWL% was an eye-popping .794, meaning in games Rogers starts, assuming every player around him is league average, a team would be expected to win 79.4% of the time — or a 128-win pace over a 162-game season.

The Orioles were 12-4 (.750) with Rogers on the mound entering Friday. Here are the waaWL% figures for the other top pitchers in the AL: Skubal (.661), Brown (.654) and Crochet (.633).

On deck

The first two games of this series featured two of the best left-handed starting pitchers in MLB with Max Fried on Thursday and Rogers on Friday. Saturday, another one of baseball’s best southpaws will take the ball when Yankees left-hander Carlos Rodón (16-9, 3.11 ERA) does so opposite Orioles righty Tomoyuki Sugano (10-8, 4.39 ERA).

Around the horn

— Before Friday’s game, the Orioles recalled right-handed reliever Jose Espada and placed Chayce McDermott on the bereavement/family medical emergency list. Espada, who signed a minor league contract with Baltimore in July, posted a 5.94 ERA and 36.8% strikeout rate for Triple-A Norfolk.

— Right-hander Scott Blewett was designated for assignment after his minor league rehabilitation assignment ended. Infielder Emmanuel Rivera, who was DFA’d earlier this week, cleared waivers and accepted his assignment to Triple-A Norfolk.


©2025 The Baltimore Sun. Visit at baltimoresun.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

 

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