PHILADELPHIA — A baseball offseason often unfolds like one of those if/then “Choose Your Own Adventure” children’s books, with the path to filling one roster need hinging on a previous move to address another.

In the Phillies’ case, Chapter 1 is all about Kyle Schwarber.

Because if the Phillies re-sign Schwarber — “a real priority,” president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said recently, and a focal point of the team’s organizational meetings this week in Citizens Bank Park — then they can sort out the catcher position (J.T. Realmuto or ... ?), recast the outfield, tweak the bullpen, plug in prized prospects Justin Crawford and Andrew Painter, and call it a winter.

But if Schwarber surveys the vast landscape of free agency and chooses greener pastures — or just more green — well, then what would the Phillies do?

A) Take their best nine-figure offer for Schwarber, a 56-homer designated hitter who turns 33 in March, and allocate it to fellow left-handed hitter Cody Bellinger, who will be 31 next summer and plays solid defense at multiple positions?

B) Pivot to free-agent first baseman Pete Alonso, presuming he would agree to be a DH, or third baseman Alex Bregman (and trade Alec Bohm for an outfielder)?

C) Go to the top of the market for outfielder Kyle Tucker?

Choose your adventure.

Across the sport, the prevailing assumption is the Phillies won’t need to.

“I hate to say it, but [Philadelphia] is a perfect place for him,” Red Sox manager Alex Cora said of Schwarber in July. “He can handle all this — and more.“

The sides didn’t come close to an agreement in extension talks in spring training. But the Phillies brought back Realmuto and Aaron Nola from the open market in 2020 and 2023, respectively. There’s no reason they can’t reel Schwarber back in, too.

Schwarber was a smash hit here from the jump, leading off with a home run on opening day in 2022. He outkicked his $79 million contract by blasting 187 homers, tied with Shohei Ohtani for second in baseball over the last four seasons. This year, he joined Ryan Howard in the Phillies’ 50-homer club.

In the clubhouse, Schwarber was like Krazy Glue. He’s a serial winner, with 10 trips to the postseason in 11 major league seasons. And he played a leading role in changing the culture of a franchise that finally returned to the playoffs in 2022 after a decade of wandering the desert.

After all that, officials from multiple teams have guessed that owner John Middleton won’t be outbid for Schwarber, no matter what it takes.

Internally, there’s similar confidence.

“When you have the owner who wants him, you have Dave Dombrowski who wants him, you have the coaching staff, you have [manager] Rob Thomson, you have a fan base, everybody involved here wants [him] to be back, including Kyle," hitting coach/Schwarber confidant Kevin Long told Phillies Extra, The Philadelphia Inquirer’s baseball podcast.

“So, what does it come down to? What’s his market value and are we willing to give him his market value? And I think the answer is yes to that.

“You put all that into the equation, I think there’s a strong chance that Kyle comes back. I think it would be devastating to this organization and this fan base and everybody involved if he wasn’t a Phillie. We’ll see where it ends up, but I feel very confident that he’ll be back.”

Bryce Harper put it succinctly this summer: “I don’t see him playing anywhere else.”

Still, there will be teams that try to pry Schwarber away.

Finding the right value

Coming off a walk year in which he led the league in homers and the majors in RBIs (132), achieved career highs in slugging (.563) and OPS-plus (150), and started all 162 games, Schwarber will take aim at a record contract for a designated hitter.

One relevant benchmark: five years, $110 million.

Those were the terms of J.D. Martinez’s agreement with the Red Sox in 2018. Two rival executives pointed to that free-agent contract as a potential starting point in talks with Schwarber, noting that Martinez was primarily a DH coming off a big walk year (45 homers, .690 slugging, 168 OPS-plus).

Martinez was entering only his age-30 season, so his five-year deal (with three opt-outs) might equate to four years for Schwarber. But Martinez’s $22 million average annual salary in 2018, adjusted for inflation, is closer to $30 million now.

Another number to bear in mind: $31.35 million.

Rafael Devers was 26 and still a third baseman when he signed a 10-year, $313.5 million extension with the Red Sox. Three years into the deal, he’s a DH/first baseman with the Giants, which puts him among the highest-paid DHs (non-Ohtani division).

Within a few days, the Phillies will make the $22.025 million qualifying offer to Schwarber, who will surely decline it. In that case, Alonso will represent another intriguing comp.

A year ago, Alonso became a free agent with a qualifying offer from the Mets and found the market to be unkind to an elite power hitter in his 30s who lacks athleticism and is a poor defender. He returned to New York, where he’s immensely popular, on what amounted to a one-year, $30 million contract. (He’s expected to decline a $24 million player option.)

Schwarber won’t lack for multiyear offers after a walk year for the ages. But given the similarities between his numbers over the last four seasons (187 homers, 134 OPS-plus, 11.1 bWAR) and Alonso’s (158 homers, 134 OPS-plus, 13.7 bWAR), a $30 million annual salary is likely a sensible starting point.

In pushing for four or five years, Schwarber’s agents will point out that he has gotten better with age.

When the Cubs didn’t offer him a contract after the 2020 season, Schwarber signed a one-year, prove-it deal with the Nationals in January 2021 and invited his new hitting coach to train with him in Tampa, Fla. Long showed up a few days later, armed with ideas and straight talk about his .197 average and .650 OPS against lefties.

“His numbers were glaring against lefties,” Long said. “He didn’t deserve to play against them. And I think there was the honesty factor where he said, ‘[The Cubs] pinch hit for me all the time. I’m never going to get better if I don’t get a chance.’ Well, the chances were given to him, and he didn’t capitalize.”

Schwarber went to work with Long, and since 2021, his OPS against lefties is .827, including .933 over the last two seasons. In four seasons with the Phillies, he led the majors with 60 homers against left-handed pitching. This year, 23 of his 56 homers came against lefties, the most ever in a season by a left-handed hitter.

Long believes Schwarber has a solid chance to reach 500 homers. He will begin next season with 340.

“There’s a lot of good stuff that he’s done with his swing that, in my opinion, it’s set for life,” Long said. “Or however long he wants to play.”

Sizing up the suitors

It seems, then, that Schwarber’s next contract will land in the $130 million to $160 million range over four or five years. That’s too rich for some teams. Other front offices are philosophically opposed to doling out a deal of that magnitude to a DH.

The Dodgers (Ohtani), Yankees (Giancarlo Stanton), Blue Jays (George Springer), Astros (Yordan Alvarez), and maybe Angels (Mike Trout) have high-priced DHs, taking four or five top-10 payroll teams out of the Schwarber derby. Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns recently told reporters that he’s prioritizing run prevention; Schwarber won’t help in that area.

It’s possible, then, that Schwarber will have a more finite market than some other marquee free agents. But keep an eye on these teams:

— Red Sox: It was only two months in 2021, but Boston — the organization, as well as the city — took to Schwarber like jelly to peanut butter.

“The impact in the clubhouse, it was amazing,” Cora said. “He touched everybody here. Guys that get it, they understand how to win games, how to impact young players, talk to veterans, deal with the coaching staff, and also deal with everything that comes with the territory.”

Schwarber would represent another left-handed bat in a Red Sox lineup that, like the Phillies, leans to the left. But he’d also be a veteran leader for a team that could have six regulars under age 26 (Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer, Ceddanne Rafaela, Kristian Campbell, Wilyer Abreu and Triston Casas).

— Reds: Schwarber grew up 35 miles north of Cincinnati in Middletown, Ohio, and when the Phillies came to town in August, the Reds invited his father and youth baseball coach to throw ceremonial first pitches.

How’s that for a not-so-subtle recruiting pitch?

The Reds made the playoffs for the first time in a full (non-COVID) season since 2013 largely because of a talented, young starting rotation. But they ranked 19th in the majors in OPS and 21st in homers and slugging. They also have at least four under-25 regulars, with Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, Sal Stewart and Noelvi Marté.

But splurging for Schwarber would be a departure for the Reds. The only nine-figure contract in club history was an extension for franchise icon Joey Votto. Their largest free-agent deals went to Nick Castellanos and Mike Moustakas (both four years, $64 million).

— Rangers: Joc Pederson missed two months with a broken right hand and struggled after returning. Not coincidentally, Texas finished with the worst OPS (.607) from the DH spot.

Schwarber would slot into the middle of a lineup that lacked thump (18th in homers, 26th in slugging).

The Rangers have missed the postseason in back-to-back years after winning the World Series in 2023, and the window may be closing on a core that features Corey Seager (32 next season), Marcus Semien (35), Jacob deGrom (38) and Nathan Eovaldi (36).

— Cubs: Flags fly forever, and Schwarber is still revered in Chicago as a hex-busting World Series champion. And the Cubs will have a middle-of-the-order hole if Tucker bolts, as expected.

It’s also a rare opportunity for a do-over for Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer, who non-tendered Schwarber as part of an ownership mandate to cut payroll after the short 2020 season.

There’s been no such directive in Philadelphia. The Phillies’ 2025 payroll, as calculated for the luxury tax, is expected to come in at about $312 million. Dombrowski called it “very substantial” and said, “I don’t see that that’s going to change” next year.

And when it comes to keeping Schwarber, most rival officials anticipate that Middleton will do what he must.

“We’d love to bring Kyle Schwarber back,” Dombrowski said. “It’s a priority for us. He knows it. His representative knows it. But I also know he’s a free agent. When guys have free agency, you never know what happens.”

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