Greg Cote: Dolphins' gamble on Waller after Ramsey and Smith for Fitzpatrick was net loss
Published in Football
MIAMI — The Dolphins and Steelers’ Monday trade splashed across the front of ESPN’s website with one of those red-banner ‘breaking news’ alerts. That was partly because Jalen Ramsey for Minkah Fitzpatrick marked the NFL’s first swap in 21 years in which two players changing uniform had each been named an All-Pro at his position.
What made it even bigger, what made it national news, is that the trade conveyed Pittsburgh’s unmistakable win-now intentions in continuing to surround new-old quarterback Aaron Rodgers with what he needs to succeed in likely his one and only season in the black and gold.
Miami’s intentions for this season and path to achieve them are somewhat less clear less than one month from the start of training camp — and thrown into even more question by this trade.
The Dolphins get another go-round with the safety Fitzpatrick, plus a 2027 fifth-round draft pick.
Pittsburgh gets the cornerback Ramsey, tight end Jonnu Smith, and a ‘27 seventh-round pick.
Fast result: Steelers won Monday, Dolphins lose. Here’s why:
By the simplest math Miami gives up two starters and gets one, a lopsidedness that the Fins’ slight edge in the picks swap does not make up for.
Ramsey and Fitzpatrick both are quality players and the latter is two years younger at 28 — but Ramsey is the better overall of the two, albeit a bit more costly as you’d expect. (The money Miami saves in divesting of Ramsey is a positive, at least.)
Pro Football Focus rated Ramsey a top-10 NFL corner last season, albeit 10th. He led all CBs with 12 QB pressures and with four passes batted at the line.
PFF ranked Fitzpatrick the league’s No. 16 safety last season, but with an overall grade of 65.2 that was his lowest since 2021 and ranked 44th. The player who was the Dolphins’ first-round pick in 2018 has had only one interception and six pass breakups over the past two seasons, thought the Fins presumably will use him in a smarter role than did Pittsburgh.
The positive to the deal for Miami is that reacquiring Fitzpatrick instead of trading Ramsey just for draft picks demonstrates the Fins are not diving head-first into rebuild mode. Ramsey had wanted out and Miami had agreed to trade him; at least they smartly targeted the secondary for his replacement.
It was including Jonnu Smith in the deal that swiveled the trade more strongly in Pittsburgh’s favor.
Mike Tomlin wanted Smith as a quick-outlet security blanket for the 41-year-old Rodgers. Smart idea.
Trouble is, what he’ll be for Rodgers is exactly what Fins QB Tua Tagovailoa will be losing, and missing.
Smith, out of FIU, is coming off his best NFL season, and the first in which he made the Pro Bowl. He had a career high 88 receptions on 111 targets, a high catch-rate of nearly 80 percent, for 884 yards and eight touchdowns. You could have made an argument he was the Dolphins’ MVP in last year’s 8-9 season. No wonder he wanted a raise. Maybe Miami should have given it.
Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel may consider offense-minded tight ends as interchangeable; then again, McDaniel’s offensive-genius card has tarnished a bit since 2023 and is up for renewal.
Losing Smith led to Tuesday’s better-than-nothing trade for tight end Darren Waller, whom they yanked out of the bargain retirement bin.
Miami sends a 2026 sixth-round pick to the Giants, who held Waller’s rights. Fins get what’s left of Waller and a conditional 2027 seventh-round pick.
Waller had two great seasons with the Raiders; trouble is they were awhile ago, in 2019-20, when current Dolphins offensive coordinator Frank Smith was Raiders tight ends coach.
Waller turns 33 in September, was retired last year, missed 21 games hurt his last three seasons, and has battled through issues with sobriety and addiction, including cocaine.
For Miami Waller is a low-cost gamble, but you’d not bet on him equaling Smith’s production from last year.
Also a bit troubling in the Miami’s offseason thus far: Ramsey becomes the fourth Dolphins team captain from last season now gone, following retired Terron Armstead, departed Calais Campbell and released David Long Jr. Fins also lose a veteran, locker room presence in Smith.
That’s a curious trend for a team actively trying to change its overall culture in a positive way and also become a team displaying more physicality. One wonders if adding the troubled history of Waller is a positive on the culture front, and also where the upgrade in physicality is.
Former Fins running back Raheem Mostert (now with the Raiders) took an unsubtle swipe at Miami when the trade news broke, writing on X: “Hot take: Be a Pro-bowler on the Dolphins, get treated like s---.”
I have written and said the Dolphins in 2025 must make the postseason and likely win their first playoff game since 2000 (an NFL-long drought) or major changes are in store — including owner Stephen Ross quite probably moving on from McDaniel and general manager Chris Grier.
Just this week, Mike Florio, host of NBC Sports’ Pro Football Talk Live show, had McDaniel No. 1 on his coaching “hot seat” list entering this coming season.
“It feels like the window has closed for a Dolphins team that could end up flying straight into the glass in 2025,” he wrote.
That’s a tad harshly pessimistic for me, but it’s true the pressure is on, and that it’s squarely on McDaniel and Grier.
Neither Monday’s major trade nor the Tuesday move it led to have done much to ease that pressure, that heat, as the calendar turns to July.
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