Greg Cote's Week 3 NFL picks

Had a better Week 2 after a tough go of it to open. That’s improvement and we’ll take it — but we’re far from satisfied. As the season settles in and finds its rhythm so does the knowledge of how the teams have evolved. That will begin to show in our records, both straight-up and vs. the Evil Betting Line. Had better, anyway! Last week we nailed our Upset of the Week with Tampa winning in Houston (thank you, Baker!) and also had another pair of dogs-with-points on covers by the Giants and Falcons. It’s just a smidge, but momentum is ours. Let’s build on it, baby! (Note: Our Thursday night pick was @Bills (-11 1/2) over Dolphins, 30-20.)

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— Week 2: 11-5, .688 overall; 8-8, .500 against the spread.

— Season: 20-12, .625 overall; 15-17, .469 against the spread.

— Final 2024: 186-86, .684 overall; 139-128-5, .521 against the spread.

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GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 3 PICKS

GAME OF THE WEEK

LIONS (1-1) at RAVENS (1-1)

Line: BAL by 4 1/2.

Cote’s pick: BAL, 37-31.

TV: 8:15 p.m. Monday, ABC/ESPN.

Rare is the Game of the Week between two .500 teams, but the Monday night stage has a good one here, with Lamar Jackson and Jared Goff having combined for nine touchdown passes last week and a points bonanza guaranteed. Baltimore and Buffalo remain AFC co-favorites to reach the Super Bowl, and don’t count out Detroit in the more wide-open NFC. Ravens lead this occasional foe 6-1 all time, and the Crows’ home-field edge is accentuated under the lights. Other trends offset, with Lions on an 8-1 run on the road but Ravens on a four-game win streak on MNF. In what figures as a pass-crazy game, I see Baltimore RB Derrick Henry the difference with a big rebound game following a rare off-week for him.

UPSET OF THE WEEK

TEXANS (0-2) at JAGUARS (1-1)

Line: JAC by 1 1/2.

Cote’s pick: HOU, 24-20.

TV: 1 p.m., CBS.

“AAAWWWK!” bugles the Upset Bird. “Dont quit on Houstaawwk!” Houston has lost by a combined six points to two (likely) playoff teams. The Texans defense, especially the secondary, is playoff-quality. Too soon to quit on a team that won its division at 10-7 last year, and this is that team’s chance to declare itself still alive and well. Texans have beaten Jags two straight and 10 of past 12, and I’d not ditch that trend here. “Even C.J. Stroud might have a good game,” notes U-Bird. “C.J. Straawwk!”

THE REST OF WEEK 3:

Thursday night pick was @Bills (-11 1/2) over Dolphins, 30-20.

Packers (2-0, -7 1/2) over @Browns (0-2), 27-10: How far is Cleveland from calling it a lost season, ripping off the Joe Flacco Band-Aid and turning to the future and backup Dillon Gabriel or even QB3 Shedeur Sanders? Green Bay is rested after playing last Thursday and its defense and big pass rush will flummox Flacco and company all day.

Colts (2-0, -4 1/2) over @Titans (0-2), 23-20: Confession: This was my Upset of the Week, until Logic and Gut Feeling went in the ring and logic won by a split decision. Don’t often talk myself out of a pick. So if Titans win Sunday, that distant sound of a man screaming will be me. Hedging with Tennessee cover, and still see outright upset in play. Indy is a bit of a fraud-y 2-0, but TEN is a penalty machine, Cam Ward already has been sacked 11 times, and love Jonathan Taylor vs. Titans’ sub-middling run D.

@Vikings (1-1, -2 1/2) over Bengals (2-0), 20-17: Battle of backup QBs — Gals’ Jake Browning vs. Vikes’ Carson Wentz — lends a diceyness to the pick and makes it the coin-flippiest Week 3 call for me. But outcome tips on Minnesota, at home, with a defensive edge over Cincy’s shaky offensive line. Leaned Bengals with points before the line shaved from 3 1/2 to 2 1/2.

@Patriots (1-1, +1 1/2) over Steelers (1-1), 24-21: Upset! (”Aawwk!”) Pats have won three in a row and eight of past nine vs. Steelers. More than that, Aaron Rodgers already has shown us how inconsistent he’ll be. And more than that, Pittsburgh’s defense has been hugely unimpressive thus far. Equals Pats as a tasty home dog.

@Eagles (2-0, -3 1/2) over Rams (2-0), 27-23: Our Game of the Week runner-up is one of only two unbeaten matchups this week. Rams are legit-good and Eagles don’t seem quite as strong as the iteration that won the Super Bowl. L.A. lost twice to Birds last season, including in the playoffs, so has the revenge coin in its pocket. And Rams’ defense will test Jalen Hurts. But our pick rides with Saquon Barkley bettering L.A.’s run D has he did twice last year.

@Buccaneers (2-0, -6 1/2) over Jets (0-2), 23-18: Tampa’s home opener is NYJ’s first road game, and Jets are weakened with QB Justin Fields out with concussion and journeyman Tyrod Taylor taking snaps. Bucs have won two games by four points total and this one should be close, too, with the line at nearly a touchdown and with TB now missing a second o-line starter.

@Commanders (1-1, -3 1/2) over Raiders (1-1), 27-17: Comms enjoy a big rest/prep edge after playing last Thursday while Vegas went Monday. But is QB Jayden Daniels healthy? He’s questionable with sprained knee, meaning he will likely start. But his dual-threat ability hasn’t been there yet, and Vegas has been stout against the run. Still like Washers at home.

Falcons (1-1, -5 1/2) over @Panthers (0-2), 31-16: NFC South rivalry has been tight; teams have split games each of past five straight seasons. Carolina is looking for a bounce in its home opener, but I don’t see it from a struggling Bryce Young. ATL has looked sneaky-good, especially that improved defense. And Falcs RB Bijan Robinson will have fantasy-god numbers vs. Cats’ generous run defense.

@Chargers (2-0, -2 1/2) over Broncos (1-1), 27-20: The Bolts swept the Broncs last season, and now L.A. is hungry for its first 3-0 start since 2002. They should get it, and thus will start the buzz over the Chargers being an intriguing Super Bowl long shot. LAC’s defense is really stout. So is Denver’s ... except last week against Jonathan Taylor. Bo Nix has struggled out the gate, Justin Herbert has been great, and that’s enough to swing this result.

@Seahawks (1-1, -7 1/2) over Saints (0-2), 20-17: New Orleans’ road opener won’t see its first win, but the chance is there. Saints have won four in a row in series, though last meeting was back in ‘22, and times have changed. Seattle is better on both sides of ball and will run on N’Awlins’ D. Still, Saints have lost both games by one score, Spencer Rattler has not been bad (no picks yet), and visitors should stay inside a fat point spread.

Cowboys (1-1, -1 1/2) over @Bears (0-2), 34-24: Intriguing matchup in a ghastly sort of way. Two bad defenses make the over maybe the safest play, even though it’s big at 50 1/2 points. Dak Prescott should go nuts vs. a Chicago secondary marred by injuries. But Dallas’ pass D just got strafed by Russell Wilson, so Caleb Williams could find some open lanes, too. Bears tempt as home dog in a tough all, but I’m saddling up Dak vs. a Bears D walloped for 79 points in two losses.

@49ers (2-0, -2 1/2) over Cardinals (2-0), 27-20: One of only two unbeaten matchups in Week 3. Cardbirds have been a bit of a thorn for Niners over the years, including a sweep last season. But I like San Fran here in its home opener — even with Mac Jones in while Brock Purdy heals. Jones was really good last week, and Zona’s pass defense is soft and banged up. Kyler Murray will face a better one here. (Aside to Kyler: Good you deleted that what-were-you-thinking Instagram pic of you in a Michael Vick T-shirt alongside your pit bull.)

Chiefs (0-2, -6 1/2) over @Giants (0-2), 31-20: Sunday night stage gets a good one, in the sense America delights to see if it’s even possible for Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City, off three consecutive Super Bowl appearances, to fall to 0-3. Short answer: It would be, if the opponent were better than the Giants. Remarkably this is Week 3’s only winless matchup. KC’s defense is good enough to carry this result while Mahomes tries to solve being stuck in the middle of not much help on offense. An uncommonly desperate Mahomes vs. Russell Wilson coming off one of the best games of his career should make for an entertaining nightcap.

(Note: Betting lines courtesy ESPNBet as of Thursday afternoon.)