Sam Farmer's Week 3 NFL picks

Los Angeles Times NFL writer Sam Farmer examines the matchups and makes his predictions for Week 3 of the NFL season.

All lines and over/under numbers are according to FanDuel Sportsbook.

Last week, Farmer posted a 14-2 (.875) record. Through the first two weeks of the season, he is 24-8 (.750). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, his record against the spread in Week 2 would have been 10-6 (.625). For the season, his record against the spread is 18-14 (.562).

All times are Pacific and TV reflects broadcasts for the Los Angeles area.

Dolphins (0-2) at Bills (2-0)

Thursday, 5:20.

Line: Bills by 11 1/2. O/U: 49 1/2.

Bills should be able to roll. Miami looks disjointed, both on defense and the coach-quarterback coordination. Besides, the Dolphins have a tough time in Buffalo. Desperation keeps it closer than expected.

Pick: Bills 28, Dolphins 16

Rams (2-0) at Eagles (2-0)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Eagles by 3 1/2. O/U: 44 1/2.

The Eagles can run, but they aren't throwing it well. The Rams have gotten better with Nate Landman in the middle. Rams have a lot of firepower on offense and their front seven.

Pick: Rams 27, Eagles 24

Packers (2-0) at Browns (0-2)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Packers by 7 1/2. O/U: 41 1/2.

Green Bay is in the early discussion for best team in the league. The Packers defense looks excellent. Hard to see Joe Flacco or a rookie lighting them up, and the Browns lack a true run threat.

Pick: Packers 27, Browns 13

Colts (2-0) at Titans (0-2)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Colts by 4 1/2. O/U: 43 1/2.

Astounding stat: through the first two weeks, the Colts haven't punted. Daniel Jones looks really good and Jonathan Taylor is rolling. Titans are sputtering with a rookie at QB, although he can make some plays.

Pick: Colts 28, Titans 15

Bengals (2-0) at Vikings (1-1)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Vikings by 3. O/U: 42 1/2.

Jake Browning vs. Carson Wentz; not exactly what the schedule-makers were thinking. This pits Minnesota's good but banged-up defense against a talented offense led by a backup.

Pick: Bengals 17, Vikings 13

Steelers (1-1) at Patriots (1-1)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Steelers by 1 1/2. O/U: 44 1/2.

Pittsburgh's defense has given up 32 and 31 points. The offensive line is shaky and the Patriots should be able to create confusion up front. Leaning toward New England in this.

Pick: Patriots 24, Steelers 20

Jets (0-2) at Buccaneers (2-0)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Bucs by 6 1/2. O/U: 44 1/2.

It might not matter that Justin Fields is out. You don't run on the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay's got weapons on both sides of the ball, and the Jets' passing game is limited.

Pick: Buccaneers 27, Jets 17

Raiders (1-1) at Commanders (1-1)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Commanders by 3 1/2. O/U: 44 1/2.

If Jayden Daniels plays and is healthy, he's enough to tilt it for Washington in a close one. If he's out, the Commanders have got precious little. Slight edge to Washington at home.

Pick: Commanders 27, Raiders 24

Falcons (1-1) at Panthers (0-2)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Falcons by 5 1/2. O/U: 43 1/2.

Carolina has lost twice, but the defeat to the Cardinals swung on a few plays and early turnovers. Atlanta looks legit, even though Tampa didn't play well and Minnesota's questionable. Somewhat close division game.

Pick: Falcons 24, Panthers 20

Texans (0-2) at Jaguars (1-1)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Jaguars by 1 1/2. O/U: 44 1/2.

Houston has some talent and division games are often close. Jacksonville's offense is humming and Trevor Lawrence has improved. Leaning toward the home team here.

Pick: Jaguars 23, Texans 21

Broncos (1-1) at Chargers (2-0)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m.

Line: Chargers by 2 1/2. O/U: 45 1/2.

The Chargers are putting together complete games, and Monday was a defensive masterpiece. They have a chance to go 3-0 vs. the AFC West and still have another game in September.

Pick: Chargers 30, Broncos 24

Saints (0-2) at Seahawks (1-1)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m.

Line: Seahawks by 7 1/2. O/U: 41 1/2.

Seattle's offense is finding rhythm as the Klint Kubiak blend settles in, and it's a brutal place to play. Saints are fine and should keep it close for a while, but Seattle will pull away.

Pick: Seahawks 28, Saints 19

Cardinals (2-0) at 49ers (2-0)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: 49ers by 1 1/2. O/U: 43 1/2.

Early in the year favors Arizona's health. The 49ers are missing a ton of talent, though Mac Jones filled in capably for Brock Purdy. Don't love it, but I'm taking the upset.

Pick: Cardinals 23, 49ers 20

Cowboys (1-1) at Bears (0-2)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Bears by 1 1/2. O/U: 50 1/2.

Chicago's defense looks shaky and gets worse with injuries in the secondary. Dallas' comeback was a big boost to morale. The Bears show flashes on offense but not enough.

Pick: Cowboys 30, Bears 21

Chiefs (0-2) at Giants (0-2)

Sunday, 5:20 p.m.

Line: Chiefs by 5 1/2. O/U: 44 1/2.

The Giants made it very interesting against Dallas, but it's highly unlikely Patrick Mahomes loses a fourth game in a row here. Kansas City's defense is far better, although the Chiefs are thin at receiver.

Pick: Chiefs 24, Giants 13

Lions (1-1) at Ravens (1-1)

Monday, 5:15 p.m.

Line: Ravens by 5 1/2. O/U: 52 1/2.

Baltimore's defense is trending up; the Ravens blew out Cleveland after a slow start. Depends which Lions show up — Jared Goff & Co. can score — but lean toward the home team.

Pick: Ravens 28, Lions 23