Greg Cote's Week 5 NFL picks

An Upset of the Week bull’s-eye with Jaguars winning at 49ers grand-marshaled our results last week, and we’ll welcome an 11-4 record straight-up into the parade any time. No place for that 6-9 against the spread, though. We went 3-0/3-0 in prime-time games and nailed the Dolphins’ win both ways; still, too many times on the wrong side of the point spread. A bunch of those achy one-point or half-point misses ATS; no matter. We’ve done extra wind sprints this week to correct all that, now let’s see those results! FYI, tie games such as Packers-Cowboys last week are excluded in our records below. [Note: Our Thursday night pick was @Rams (3-1, -6 1/2) over 49ers (3-1), 24-20.)

———

— Week 4: 11-4, .733 overall; 6-9, .400 against the spread.

— Season: 41-22, .651 overall; 28-35, .444 against the spread.

— Final 2024: 186-86, .684 overall; 139-128-5, .521 against the spread.

———

GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 5 PICKS

GAME OF THE WEEK

CHIEFS (2-2) at JAGUARS (3-1)

Line: KC by 3 1/2.

Cote’s pick: KC, 24-20.

TV: 8:15 p.m. Monday, ABC/ESPN.

Rancorous debate in the GOTW meeting room as the panel nearly came to blows, with Broncos-Eagles supporters threatening a walkout as Bucs-Seahawks advocates were kicking over chairs. At last, Chiefs-Jags won by a single vote as the panel repaired to the Quill & Swill Pub to mend frayed feelings with old friend Jim Beam. Has Jacksonville ever been part of our Game of the Week before? Doubt it. Has Jax ever been on Monday night before? Yeah, 17 times, but only twice since 2011. Are Jags for real? Let’s see. Could be a good one for the MNF stage. Will be something of a coming-out party for Jags to (hopefully) intro themselves as new and improved. The Chiefs we know well, but they too are improved from earlier this season, with return of WR Xavier Worthy a goose for Patrick Mahomes’ previously doubted offense. Jax’s biggest improvement has been on D, and K.C. is stout on that side, too, so don’t be surprised by an unusually low-scoring Monday night.

UPSET OF THE WEEK

TEXANS (1-3) at RAVENS (1-3)

Line: HOU by 2 1/2.

Cote’s pick: BAL, 19-16.

TV: 1 p.m., CBS.

“AAWWK!” trumpets the Upset Bird. “Not giving up on Ravens yet! Baltimaaawwwk!” We nailed last week’ s UOTW with Jaguars winning in San Fran. Can we keep it going? Lamar Jackson’s hamstring very likely will sideline him, and it’s a huge drop-off to Cooper Rush. But I like the Crows anyway. Rush has had 14 career starts (eight last year with Dallas) and is good enough to play a do-no-harm role as team ups the workload for Derrick Henry. And Ravens’ thus-far abysmal defense can’t but look better vs. a Texans offense with a dismal O-line and bottom five in scoring. BAL has won six straight in series and eight in a row at home vs. Houston. “Yes I am,” admits U-Bird. “I’m pinning an upset pick on a bad defense being less awful and on Cooper Raawwk!”

THE REST OF WEEK 5:

Thursday night pick was @Rams (3-1, -6 1/2) over 49ers (3-1), 24-20.

Vikings (2-2, -3 1/2) over Browns (1-3) in London, 20-16: Vikes stayed in U.K. all week after playing in Dublin and now London for Sunday’s 9:30 a.m. kickoff at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Skipping that travel again is a big plus as Browns fly nearly 4,000 miles for their “home” game. Soccer-loving Londoners should be at home with the lack of scoring here. Cleveland’s pass rush looks to dominate Minnesota’s injury-wracked O-line and bother Carson Wentz, while Brian Flores’ blitzkrieg Vikes D will be a tough matchup for rookie Dillon Gabriel’s maiden go as Browns’ QB1.

@Colts (3-1, -6 1/2) over Raiders (1-3), 27-17: Indy showed doubters in its close loss at Rams that its 3-0 start was no fluke. Vegas has struggled on offense but rookie RB Ashton Jeanty’s breakout game last week augurs well. Raiders are an opponent the Colts could take lightly, but that first loss and the home crowd will prevent that.

Dolphins (1-3, -1 1/2) over @Panthers (1-3), 26-20: These are two bad teams. This is not a game to prove who’s good, but rather who’s less bad. Sunday’s loser will see its playoff hopes realistically fade to black. The winner at 2-3 will keep hope alive, sort of. Why do I like Miami, not a good road team, to win on the road? A few things. Both teams have played the Patriots. Miami lost by six points, Carolina by 29. I have seen the Dolphins play better every week since that rotten egg of an opener at Indy. I give the Fins’ offense an edge over Carolina’s even with WR Tyreek Hill lost for the season with a wrecked left knee. Jaylen Waddle has WR1 talent and speed, more targets for Malik Washington is not a bad thing, the sudden emergence of TE Darren Waller is big, and I think Sunday we will see a greater emphasis on workload for RB De’Von Achane vs. a soft Panthers run D. Miami’s own defense has been quite bad, but the Cats do not have the weapons to take full advantage. And even Miami’s D showed improvement last week (albeit against the Jets) by forcing and recovering three fumbles. And let’s talk QBs. Even if you’re still not sold on Tua Tagovailoa, one of the guys he’s better than is Carolina’s Bryce Young. If I’m right about that on Sunday, Fins fly home with a two-game win streak.

Giants (1-3, +1 1/2) over @Saints (0-4), 23-20: Upset! (”Aawwk!”) NYG has lost seven straight on the road and N’Awlins five straight at home. Somethin’ gotta give. Spencer Rattler has been decent and Saints getting off the winless schneid here is way possible — especially with Biggies missing top WR Malik Nabers. But edge to G-Men on both sides off ball, and rookie QB Jaxson Dart has delivered a spark as seen in last week’s shock upset of Chargers.

Cowboys (1-2-1, -2 1/2) over @Jets (0-4), 31-23: The fumbling, bumbling Jets all but handed that win to Dolphins in Miami last Monday while one night earlier Dallas showed up big at home in that 40-40 tie with Packers. Both defenses here are bad, but only one offense is. Boys at least can boast a hot Dak Prescott and George Pickens filling in as a most capable WR1 until CeeDee Lamb returns.

@Eagles (4-0, -3 1/2) over Broncos (2-2), 24-18: Most say Philadelphia isn’t as good/dominant as last year’s champs, but pick against them at your own risk — especially at home, where it has won 13 in a row. Eagles excel where the bread is buttered, in the red zone, both scoring and stopping opponents in close. Denver has strong defense and will try to pound the ball with J.K. Dobbins against a run D that is not Philly’s strength. That should be enough to keep it close ... but not win.

@Cardinals (2-2, -7 1/2) over Titans (0-4), 27-9: Deploying admirable brevity, Titans rookie QB Cam Ward out of Coral Gables referred to his winless team as “a— right now” — slang for one’s derriere, or a donkey. Can’t argue with you, Cam. Tennessee is today the worst team in the NFL. Zona is nothing special but should comfortably extend Titans’ woes.

@Seahawks (3-1, -3 1/2) over Buccaneers (3-1), 23-20: Game of the Week candidate and quality NFC matchup with playoff heft as Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold continue to prove there is hope for QBs once mocked and prematurely consigned to the has-been bin. I see Seattle as a bit better on both sides of the ball, plus Tampa has defensive injuries, WR Mike Evans remains out and RB Bucky Irving is iffy to play. Still like that Mayfield magic to keep it inside the bet line.

Lions (3-1, -10 1/2) over @Bengals (2-2), 38-13: Sans Joe Burrow, Cincinnati’s offense really struggles to score. Detroit’s offense ... does not. Lions have put up 124 points in past three games and hung 34 on a strong Browns D last week. Bengals have beaten Detroit seven straight times, though last in ‘21. Times have changed. Lions on a 9-1 run on the road and Gals are off a short week. This is week’s biggest point spread, but I don’t see Cincy staying close.

@Chargers (3-1, -2 1/2) over Commanders (2-2), 24-21: Another quality matchup and a tough call as two good teams try to rebound from bad upset losses — Comms to the Falcons, Bolts to the Giants. Washers will have QB Jayden Daniels back after two games out with a knee injury, but how will his mobility be vs. a challenging LAC defense? And can Justin Herbert rev up an offense that sputters in the red zone while likely missing LT Joe Alt to an ankle injury? Edge to the home team.

@Bills (4-0, -7 1/2) over Patriots (2-2), 28-23: Sunday night stage gets an AFC East duel that could be a good one. Rivals have split games each of past two seasons. Buffalo did not impress vs. New Orleans last week and may still be missing defensive stalwarts Ed Oliver and Matt Milano (though both are close to returning). For Pats, QB Drake Maye looks good and his defense is solid. Don’t see Bills’ 13-game home win streak ending, but lean Pats getting a touchdown-plus.

Note: Betting lines courtesy ESPNBet as of Thursday mid-afternoon.

OFF THIS WEEK

— Bears (2-2); next @Commanders: The bye weeks debut! Time for fantasy team owners to start scrambling. Chicago has won two straight after topping Las Vegas last week, and QB Caleb Williams is looking solid. But tough road test awaits.

— Falcons (2-2); next vs. Bills: Atlanta is erratic, tough to read, but surprised with a nice home upset over Washington last week. But might visit by Bills see the return of the Bad Birds?

— Packers (2-1-1); next vs. Bengals: After 2-0 start then loss to Browns, Pack can’t be happy with tie at Dallas. Lambeau visit by Bengals should get Green Back back on track.

— Steelers (3-1); next vs. Browns: Nice win over Vikings in Dublin, Ireland last week. After the break, Pittsburgh is back home vs. neighbor-rival Cleveland a two-hour drive away.