Greg Cote's Thursday night NFL pick

Greg Cote, Miami Herald on Nov 5, 2025

Published in Football

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NFL WEEK 10 THURSDAY PICK

RAIDERS (2-6) at BRONCOS (7-2)

Line: DEN by 9 1/2.

Cote’s pick: DEN, 24-17.

TV: 8:15 p.m. Thursday, Prime Video.

NFL Week 10 kicks off Thursday night with what seems a mismatch at a fast glance, although division games like this one from the AFC West tend to tighten a bit. Broad view: Denver has won nine straight road games, and Las Vegas has lost eight straight division games. Fine-tuning on the matchup: Bronco defense’s 40 sacks lead the league by a mile, and that figures to hector and possibly devour mistake-prone Raiders QB Geno Smith. Still, Vegas had been a nemesis that had beaten Denver eight games in a row before the Broncos flipped that and swept in 2024. That further makes Raiders a tempting dog getting nearly double digits. But Vegas struggles to generate points, has lost its last three road games by a combined 112-30, and faces here the NFL’s No. 4-ranked scoring defense. Bottom line: Denver is still missing star CB Patrick Surtain, and Smith is much better since reuniting with WR Tyler Lockett and with a healthy TE Brock Bowers, a fantasy wrecking ball last week. Saddle up Broncos D for the win, but ride Geno’s reinvigorated attack for the cover.

(Note: Betting line courtesy ESPNBet as of midafternoon Wednesday.)