Greg Cote's Week 12 NFL picks

Had a decent Week 11 including a pair of ‘dogs-with-points covers by Panthers and Titans, but it wasn’t good enough. Erred badly on our Lions-over-Eagles upset pick but had tough luck against the spread in two losses by a half-point and one point. The push ATS was Packers winning right on the number at seven. Our season goal is still to top .650 overall and get plus-.500 vs. the line. Lots of time left, but need to get crackin’! [Note: Our Thursday night pick was Bills (7-3, -6) over @Texans (5-5), 23-20.]

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— Week 11: 10-5, .667 overall; 7-7-1, .500 against the spread.

— Season: 104-59, .638 overall; 78-84-1, .482 against the spread.

— Final 2024: 186-86, .684 overall; 139-128-5, .521 against the spread.

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GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 12 PICKS

GAME OF THE WEEK

COLTS (8-2) at CHIEFS (5-5)

Line: KC by 3 1/2.

Cote’s pick: KC, 27-23.

TV: 1 p.m., CBS.

Much rancor as the GOTW panel met at the Quill ‘n Swill to anoint Week 12’s kingpin game, with a boisterous faction unable to let go of the narrowly beaten Bucs-at-Rams. (Lone delegates argued for Eagles-Cowboys and Panthers-49ers but both were deemed drunk and tossed through the pub’s batwing doors.) Hard to argue Indy at K.C. in The Battle of The Doubted. Are Colts and Daniel Jones as great as the record? (Many still doubt it.) Will the Chiefs’ dynasty crumble outside of even a lowly wild-card spot? (Many are starting to believe it.) Indy is off a bye; prep/rest edge there. K.C. reels from consecutive losses; desperation edge there. Colts will catch a break with mildish weather, but home edge still is strong here. Both Indy losses have been on the road, and Chiefs are on a 17-1 streak at Arrowhead. Also, sorry, but the gut and every parameter of rational thought rejects the idea of Patrick Mahomes walking off the field humbled by Daniel Jones. Mahomes + home + desperate need = Chiefs.

UPSET OF THE WEEK

BROWNS (2-8) at RAIDERS (2-8)

Line: LV by 3 1/2.

Cote’s pick: CLE, 16-13.

TV: 4:05 p.m., CBS.

“AAAWWWK!” booms the Upset Bird. “Clevelaaawwwk!” Do I trust Browns QB Shedeur Sanders in his first NFL start after he was utterly abysmal in relief last week? Only about as much as I trust Raiders QB Geno Smith to do much positive against Myles Garrett’s big-sacking Cleveland defense, the one that gave Lamar Jackson fits last week. Sanders’ maiden pro start is additionally at risk of missing TE David Njoku to injury, with both starting OTs Cam Robinson and Jack Conklin also banged up. Maxx Crosby must be salivating. Still, in a matchup that figures as low scoring, I’ll ride with the best defense in the stadium. “Bottom line, Myles Garrett being great will make up for Shedeur Sanders being Shedeur Sanders,” as U-Bird puts it. “Myles Gaaawwwk!”

THE REST OF WEEK 12:

Thursday night pick was Bills (7-3, -6) ) over @Texans (5-5), 23-20: That’s Houston on the home-dog cover.

@Bears (7-3, -2 1/2) over Steelers (6-4), 23-21: Pick is complicated two ways by Aaron Rodgers. First, he has been mediocre past three games and is iffy to play due to left wrist injury, with sizable drop-off to Mason Rudolph. Second, Bears and their fans hate Rodgers dating to his Packers days, when he would gloat that he “owned” them. I think Pitt’s better, but Bears’ emotional edge, 6-1 run vs. Steelers at Soldier Field and Rodgers’ cloudy status makes us stay home on this pick, though still chance Steelers with points.

Patriots (9-2, -6 1/2) over @Bengals (3-7), 30-20: Another pick muddied by a major QB question: Will Joe Burrow play? Out since Week 2 with turf toe, Cincy’s general practiced fully Wednesday as the bet line reacted with an 8.5-to-6.5 plunge. Coach Zac Taylor was noncommittal on Burrow starting. Even if it’s a go for Joe, though, Bengals will be without suspended star WR/spitter Ja’Marr Chase and top defender Trey Hendrickson. And Pats RB TreVeyon Henderson will feast on Gals’ league-worst, epic-bad run D.

@Lions (6-4, -10 1/2) over Giants (2-9), 37-13: NYG hopes/expects to have QB Jaxson Dart back from a concussion, but that doesn’t weigh much in the conviction that Detroit is due a big home bounceback from last week’s prime-time offensive fizzle in Philly. G-Men have lost 10 straight road games and won’t stop Lions from making it 3-0 covering this year as double-digit faves.

@Packers (6-3-1, -6 1/2) over Vikings (4-6), 23-17: Competitive division rivalry has seen Vikes win last two trips to Lambeau and surf a 6-3 series run overall, but that stops here as Micah Parsons and Gee Bees’ pass D will gobble up a struggling J.J. McCarthy. Still — especially with Pack RB Josh Jacobs (knee) iffy to play — let’s bet that Minny keeps it inside the bet line.

Seahawks (7-3, -13 1/2) over @Titans (1-9), 31-6: Seattle’s defense vs. Tenners’ offense is a Grade A mismatch that should only underline and magnify Cam Ward’s rookie struggles as it extends Titans’ 0-9 skid at home. This is NFL version of a hungry lion vs. a limping hyena in the wild. Seahawks nearly beat Rams last week despite Sam Darnold’s four picks, and I expect a massive rebound performance at a weak foe’s expense.

@Ravens (5-5, -13 1/2) over Jets (2-8), 28-13: NYJ’s QB switch is the mercy benching of Justin Fields for retread Tyrod Taylor. Is it an upgrade? Is SPAM better than chopped liver? Let’s not pretend Taylor is an answer or savior. Meanwhile the playoff-chasing Crows are 3-0 since Lamar Jackson’s return, and the big wheel should keep on turning here. Watch L-Jack hoist big numbers after a subpar show vs. Browns tough D.

Jaguars (6-4, -3) over @Cardinals (3-7), 24-23: Warning: Upset alert! Upset Bird was circling this one hard but couldn’t quite find the trigger. Big trap game for Jax coming off that 35-6 home rout of a good Chargers team. Overconfidence and taking Cards lightly are big in play here. Give us home ‘dogs to cover as Jacoby Brissett once again throws several hundred passes.

@Cowboys (4-5-1, +3) over Eagles (8-2), 24-20: Upset! Rivalry vibes alone give this a big-game feel, except Boys aren’t holding up their end. But might they here? Philly had lost six straight trips to Dallas before winning the last a year ago. Let’s find out how much Eagles miss injured LT Lane Johnson ... and whether Cowboys have the pass rush to capitalize. Philly has looked closer to its champion self in four-game win streak, and adding Jaelan Phillips has bolstered the defense. But I trust Dak Prescott to outscore Birds, and am banking on a rise-up show by Dallas’ D.

Falcons (3-7, +1 1/2) @Saints (2-8), 21-19: Another upset! Serious question: Should New Orleans be favored ... over anybody? I like ATL to end its five-game skid here, even with QB Michael Penix lost for season and star WR Drake London out this game. Veteran Kirk Cousins is a plus-grade backup — especially if he understands that his job here is to hand the ball early and often to RB Bijan Robinson.

@Rams (8-2, -6 1/2) over Buccaneers (6-4), 28-23: Sunday night stage gets a good one with our GOTW runner-up. Long way to go but Rams today are Super Bowl faves with Matthew Stafford out front in MVP odds. L.A. is balanced on both sides of ball, coached great and on the wing of a five-game win streak. Don’t see Tampa, in a bit of a stumble, stopping all that. But do see Baker Mayfield finding a way to sneak it inside a plump betting number.

@49ers (7-4, -7) over Panthers (6-5), 24-20: Prime-time Monday gives Carolina a chance to prove itself to the American majority who can’t believe this team is 6-5. Also another chance for San Fran to keep winning despite all the injuries. Niners, though, have been up and down since a 3-0 start, and Cats have a shot to at least cover if they get RB Rico Dowdle going vs. a somewhat overrated SF defense. See it close.

(Note: Betting lines courtesy DraftKings as of Thursday mid-afternoon.)

OFF THIS WEEK

— Dolphins (4-7; next vs. Saints): The NFL rewarded Miami time off for good behavior after a 9,000-mile round trip for a “home” game that resulted in the 16-13 overtime win against Washington. Miami has won three of past four to climb to 4-7 and is a slight betting favorite to also win the bye week. With a home game vs. the Saints next and a trip to the Jets following, that means a rise to 6-7 is not out of the question. That in turn would allow half of Dolfans to dream wild card playoffs and the other half to simultaneously bemoan cascading draft position. As is, the recent upsurge has seen Mike McDaniel go from leading the next-coach-fired odds to being a fair bet to be back for a fifth season..

— Broncos (9-2; next @Commanders): Is Denver the Super Bowl contender too few are talking about? Win over Chiefs was Broncos’ eighth straight, and soft Vegas is up after Washington.

— Chargers (7-4; next vs. Raiders): Don’t know about you, but my regard for Justin Herbert and the Bolts took a serious gut punch with last week’s 35-6 spanking of a loss at Jacksonville.

— Commanders (3-8; next vs. Broncos): Washington’s 16-13 OT loss to Miami in Madrid was Comm’s sixth straight L. Remember when Dan Quinn was a tough-guy “it” coach like a Dan Campbell Jr?