Sam Farmer's Week 12 NFL picks

Sam Farmer, Los Angeles Times on Nov 20, 2025

Published in Football

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Los Angeles Times NFL writer Sam Farmer examines the matchups and makes his predictions for Week 12 of the NFL season.

All lines and over/under numbers are according to FanDuel Sportsbook.

Last week, Farmer posted a 12-3 (.800) record. Through the first 11 weeks of the season, he is 109-55 (.665).

Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, his record against the spread in Week 11 would have been 9-6 (.600). For the season, his record against the spread is 84-80 (.512).

All times are Pacific. The Broncos, Chargers, Commanders and Dolphins are off this week.

Bills (7-3) at Texans (5-5)

Thursday, 5:15 p.m.

Line: Bills by 5 1/2. O/U: 43 1/2.

The Bills have huge confidence in Josh Allen and rightfully so. Houston's defense is solid, but the offense is sputtering and the line continues to leak under pressure. Buffalo should be able to run it enough to control tempo.

Pick: Bills 21, Texans 17

Colts (8-2) at Chiefs (5-5)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Chiefs by 3 1/2. O/U: 49 1/2.

The Colts come off a bye with a strong run game and physicality that travels, but the Chiefs are in a backs-against-the-wall moment at home. Patrick Mahomes tends to deliver in a desperate situation.

Pick: Chiefs 23, Colts 20

Steelers (6-4) at Bears (7-3)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Bears by 2 1/2. O/U: 44 1/2.

Chicago has become the most consistent team in the NFC North, winning seven of eight behind takeaways and a resurgent ground attack. With Aaron Rodgers unlikely to go and the Steelers struggling against run-heavy, play-action teams, this feels like another Bears win.

Pick: Bears 28, Steelers 20

Vikings (4-6) at Packers (6-3-1)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Packers by 6 1/2. O/U: 41 1/2.

The Vikings remain wildly inconsistent with J.J. McCarthy, and the run game hasn't materialized. Even without Josh Jacobs on offense, Green Bay can rely on its defense, collapse the pocket and force mistakes.

Pick: Packers 24, Vikings 20

Patriots (9-2) at Bengals (3-7)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Patriots by 7 1/2. O/U: 49 1/2.

The Patriots' offense looks sharp, and their run defense should handle a Joe Mixon-less Bengals team. With Ja'Marr Chase out and Tee Higgins likely double-teamed, Cincinnati's offense just doesn't have enough juice.

Pick: Patriots 34, Bengals 14

Giants (2-9) at Lions (6-4)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Lions by 10 1/2. O/U: 49 1/2.

The Lions should rebound after a frustrating loss. Jaxson Dart's possible return offers a lift, but Detroit has too much offensive firepower and is tough at home. The Giants play hard but can't match points.

Pick: Lions 28, Giants 17

Seahawks (7-3) at Titans (1-9)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Seahawks by 13 1/2. O/U: 40 1/2.

Sam Darnold showed toughness last week and the Seattle defense is rounding into form. Tennessee continues to fight but is down weapons and too reliant on a rookie quarterback. Seattle smothers them.

Pick: Seahawks 30, Titans 13

Jets (2-8) at Ravens (5-5)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Ravens by 13 1/2. O/U: 44 1/2.

The Jets turn to Tyrod Taylor at quarterback, which could give them a short-term spark. But the Ravens showed a steel spine in last week's comeback. Baltimore still has the superior roster, run game, and coaching stability.

Pick: Ravens 28, Jets 17

Jaguars (6-4) at Cardinals (3-7)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m.

Line: Jaguars by 2 1/2. O/U: 47 1/2.

The Jaguars are healthier and trending upward. Arizona keeps fighting but is severely undermanned, and shouldn't rush Marvin Harrison Jr. back from an appendectomy. Jacksonville is steadier on both sides.

Pick: Jaguars 27, Cardinals 21

Browns (2-8) at Raiders (2-8)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m.

Line: Raiders by 3 1/2. O/U: 36 1/2.

Shedeur Sanders is due to make his first NFL start, and that won't be easy. The Raiders are getting healthier, Brock Bowers adds explosiveness and Maxx Crosby is back to form. Raiders showed some flashes Monday night.

Pick: Raiders 24, Browns 17

Eagles (8-2) at Cowboys (4-5-1)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Eagles by 3 1/2. O/U: 47 1/2.

Dallas can score, and its defense is better with Quinnen Williams. The Eagles' defense is suffocating and looks like a classic Vic Fangio unit across all three levels. Philadelphia's offense should take a step forward and control the game late.

Pick: Eagles 28, Cowboys 23

Falcons (3-7) at Saints (2-8)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Saints by 1 1/2. O/U: 39 1/2.

With Kirk Cousins at quarterback and no Drake London, Atlanta is scraping by. Five losses in a row. The Saints aren't good, but they're slightly more stable and less turnover-prone.

Pick: Saints 27, Falcons 23

Buccaneers (6-4) at Rams (8-2)

Sunday, 5:20 p.m.

Line: Rams by 6 1/2. O/U: 49 1/2.

The Rams are healthier and playing excellent complementary football. Matthew Stafford is playing at an MVP pace. Tampa Bay lacks key weapons. Tough spot for the Buccaneers on the road and in prime time.

Pick: Rams 27, Buccaneers 21

Panthers (6-5) at 49ers (7-4)

Monday, 5:15 p.m.

Line: 49ers by 7. O/U: 48 1/2.

The Panthers are no pushovers at home, but the 49ers are getting bodies back and Brock Purdy is settling in again. Christian McCaffrey continues to look like an MVP candidate. Carolina keeps it close.

Pick: 49ers 27, Panthers 24