Greg Cote's Thanksgiving Day NFL picks

Greg Cote, Miami Herald on Nov 26, 2025

Published in Football

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Happy Thanksgiving and happy anniversary, NFL fans! This marks the 20th year of the holiday tripleheader, meaning football and food will again be competing for your attention pretty much from noon Thursday to midnight. King Sport added the third game in 2006, and the latest Bird Day troika should not disappoint. The menu:

— Packers at Lions in the early kickoff as the dean of Thanksgiving hosts, Detroit, stages a record 58th game on the holiday and a record 23rd vs. division rival Green Bay.

— It’s Chiefs at Cowboys in the middle game as the official America’s Team (or so they still insist on saying) hosts the real America’s Team (based on more recent results).

— And the hot Ravens host the reeling Bengals in the nightcap in an otherwise blah division matchup gifted a holiday goose by the almost certain return from injury of Cincy star QB Joe Burrow.

On a personal aside, we’re surfing a lil’ heater. Went 13-1 straight-up on our picks last week and 3 for 3 on outright upsets with Browns over Raiders, Cowboys over Eagles and Falcons over Saints.

Anybody remember the Dolphins playing Thanksgiving night last year and losing in Green Bay? Yeah I barely do, either. Must have been that third Old Fashioned. On to our picks!

GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 13 THANKSGIVING DAY PICKS

PACKERS (7-3-1) at LIONS (7-4)

Line: DET by 2 1/2.

Cote’s pick: DET, 27-23.

TV: 1 p.m. Thursday, Fox.

In the Cote household we will be prepping our two Cajun-style turkeys for the deep-fried oil as the early game kicks off with the Pack and Lions both unexpectedly looking up at the surprising Bears in the NFC North. Two quality teams that both are playoff-bound makes for a tough call as Detroit continues a holiday tradition since 1934, one as entrenched in that city as Motown and automobiles. Gee Bees prevailed in season opener 27-13, but Lions were prior on a 6-1 series roll and should return to that form at home. Lions are flawed on O-line and on defense but decisively enjoy more firepower with the ball, and I like a way-hot Jahmyr Gibbs vs. what has been a stout Packers run-D. Also, Pack’s star RB Josh Jacobs (knee) could be limited if he plays at all.

CHIEFS (6-5) at COWBOYS (5-5-1)

Line: KC by 3 1/2.

Cote’s pick: DAL, 30-24.

TV: 4:30 p.m. Thursday, CBS/Paramount+.

Our family party of 13 will likely be gathered at the dining table and in mid-feast as the middle game commences. Dallas has hosted on Thanksgiving every year but two since 1966, and this latest matchup intrigues despite the mediocre records on both sides. Neither’s teetering playoff contention can afford a loss here. Both teams’ top WRs are hobbled but I would expect George Pickens and Rashee Rice both to play. And guess what? The bird on your table isn’t the only bird around this game. Look, it’s the Upset Bird! That’s right. Chiefs are not the same team on the road (1-4), and K.C. has lost five straight trips to Dallas. Cowboys’ Dak Attack is the better offense here, and ‘Boys defense has toughened since earlier in the season. Upset!

BENGALS (3-8) at RAVENS (6-5)

Line: BAL by 7.

Cote’s pick: BAL, 34-20.

TV: 8:20 p.m. Thursday, NBC/Peacock.

The feast is digested by now at our house and the tryptophan is kicking in, but the late game is too good to drowse on. Lamar Jackson has Baltimore on a five-game win streak and playoff-chasing for real. Cincy has lost four straight and is pretty much done, but ... Joe Burrow is expected to be back QB’ing the Bengals for first time since a Week 1 injury. Burrow’s return moves the watchability meter here, but don’t expect an upset because of it. Burrow will be without WR Tee Higgins, and top sacker Trey Hendrickson will be missing from an already terrible Gals D. Crows on a 6-1 run at home in rivalry, and Jackson and Derrick Henry will keep that going against a Cincinnati defense bad enough to makes Joe’s comeback a mountain to climb.

(Betting lines courtesy DraftKings as of Tuesday afternoon.)