Greg Cote's Week 14 NFL picks

A good week for us overall, the previous one, a bit of overdue luck our way on Week 13. Navigated some land-mine surprises for an OK 10-6 outright and cashed a solid 9-6-1 against the spread for some needed gains there. We scored an outright upset with Cowboys beating Chiefs on Bird Day and also had a trio of other ‘dogs-with-points covers by the Bears at Philly, Texans at Indy and Commanders vs. Denver. The push (tie ATS) was the Buccaneers’ 3-point win. [Note: Our Thursday night pick was @Lions (7-5, -3) over Cowboys (6-5-1), 34-30.]

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— Week 13: 10-6, .625 overall; 9-6-1, .594 against the spread.

— Season: 127-66, .658 overall; 91-99-3, .479 against the spread.

— Final 2024: 186-86, .684 overall; 139-128-5, .521 against the spread.

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GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 14 PICKS

GAME OF THE WEEK

BEARS (9-3) at PACKERS (8-3-1)

Line: GB by 6 1/2.

Cote’s pick: GB, 24-20.

TV: 4:25 p.m., Fox.

Week 14 delivers a handful of solid GOTW candidates including Colts-Jags and Eagles-Chargers, but let’s go to the Frozen Tundra and two-thirds of a three-way fight for the top of the NFC North. Even Chicago fans can hardly believe their team is presently the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Green Bay has its doubters, too. But both are coming off proof-worthy wins — Bears over Philly, Pack over Detroit. And that made it five straight W’s for Chitown and three in a row for the Gee Bees. Pack had dominated rivalry with 11 straight wins before Bears won most recent meeting. Temps in the teens will lend a wintry ruggedness as Josh Jacobs rules the ground vs. a bad CHI run defense. Bet line proves fat though as the Bears prove they belong.

UPSET OF THE WEEK

EAGLES (8-4) at CHARGERS (8-4)

Line: PHI by 3.

Cote’s pick: LAC, 20-17.

TV: 8:15 p.m. Monday, ABC/ESPN.

“AAAWWWK!” croons the Upset Bird. “Los Angelaawwk on Monday naawwk!” Eagles have lost five of past six trips at Chargers and will be without DT Jalen Carter Monday. Now here’s what I think: Think reigning-champ Philly is a shell of itself. Think Chargers are a bit under-regarded. Think Justin Herbert will play despite surgery last week on his non-throwing hand. Think Bolts will also have RB Omarion Hampton back for first time since Week 5. Think I tend to like a home ‘dog in prime time. Then again, if Herbert ends up not playing ... I think I may be wrong. “A source tells me Herbert will play,” confirms U-Bird, who has no such source at all. “Justin Herbaaawwwk!”

THE REST OF WEEK 14:

Our Thursday night pick was @Lions (7-5, -3) over Cowboys (6-5-1), 34-30.

Dolphins (5-7, -2 1/2) over @Jets (3-9), 23-30: This is an open letter to the Dolphins. Call it a public service announcement: “Dear Fins: Beware. You’ve won three games in a row and four of five. You’re playing a team you’ve already beaten (27-21 in Week 4). You are on a 9-2 run against this opponent. They call this a ‘trap game.’ Y’all are not good enough to be overconfident — especially vs. a division rival on the road. You are 1-4 away from Hard Rock this year. Also, temps expected in the 40s don’t help the situation. Miami, you are a team that threw away a 16-0 lead and almost lost last week to New Orleans when your defense decided it was a good idea to intentionally not recover an onside kick. And the Saints may be worse than the Jets. I see you winning on Sunday, Fins, mainly because rising star De’Von Achane should have another big day vs. the Planes’ bad run defense if you remember to give him the ball enough. Also, I see you all covering the point spread, mainly because it’s pretty small. Just saying the potential for losing is blinking at you like a neon sign, right there for you not to disregard if you’re smart. Yours truly, Greg.”

Seahawks (9-3, -7) over @Falcons (4-8), 27-16: Seattle defense pitched shutout last week (albeit vs. free-falling Vikings) and should handle ATL — though Drake London’s anticipated return from injury would be big for Kirk Cousins. ‘Hawks have been great on road (11-1 away streak). Falcons tempt with points but just can’t be trusted.

@Bills (8-4, -5 1/2) over Bengals (4-8), 31-24: Joe Burrow’s comeback makes Cincy interesting, and the Bengals travel rested after playing last Bird Day. Joe is too late to save the season, though, and can’t play defense against Josh Allen. It’s Buffalo with the meaningful incentive as they claw for playoffs, and with the difference-making home field advantage.

@Browns (3-9, -4 1/2) over Titans (1-11), 16-6: Sad Bowl pits maybe NFL’s two worst teams, though Shedeur Sanders vs. Cam Ward intrigues in a calamitous sort of way. Titans are way-eliminated; Browns miraculously not quite. Myles Garrett and Cleves’ D will swallow Tennessee whole. Quick aside: Deshaun Watson is practicing again for Browns. That just can’t have a happy ending.

Commanders (3-9, +2 1/2) over @Vikings (4-8), 23-20: Upset! Chaos-matchup with Washington on a seven-game losing streak and Minny’s skid at four. But Vikings seem literally at a loss, while Commanders showed something last week in a one-point overtime L to way-hot Denver. Jayden Daniels may be back for Comms, though Marcus Mariota again seems likelier. Still take him over J.J. McCarthy right now.

@Buccaneers (7-5, -8 1/2) over Saints (2-10), 24-17: Baker Mayfield hasn’t been great the past month or so and N’Awlins’ pass-D is sneaky not-bad (as Tua Tagovailoa found out last week). Like Bucs at home but look for eliminated Saints to show fight and cover a big spread in a division game.

Colts (8-4, -1 1/2) over @Jaguars (8-4), 27-24: Game of the Week contender finds two straight losses heaping doubts on Indy, while three straight wins have hesitant believers starting to reluctantly buy Jax a bit. Colts have lost nine straight trips to J’ville, but beware: Sometimes the trend is your friend ... but sometimes the trend must end! Daniel Jones is playing through a leg injury but should get it crankin’ vs. Jags’ pick-strong but otherwise subpar pass-D.

@Ravens (6-6, -6) over Steelers (6-6), 23-20: As their teams struggle to hang in the playoff hunt, Lamar Jackson (ankle) and Aaron Rodgers (wrist) both are banged up — and neither has been very good lately. (Just ask their fantasy owners.) Mike Tomlin feeling the heat? Like BAL at home and rested after playing last Thursday, but strong lean to PIT on an 8-3 series run and getting this many points in a division rivalry that figures low-scoring.

Broncos (10-2, -7 1/2) over @Raiders (2-10), 28-13: Denver has won nine straight but the past four have been by a combined 10 points. Hardly juggernaut stuff. Vegas has lost six on a row and hasn’t scored more than one TD in a game in a month. Raiders (8-3 series run) have been a bit of a nemesis for Broncos, which makes a home-‘dog cover tempting. But Denver’s defense will be on Geno Smith like a dog on a meaty bone.

Rams (9-3, -7 1/2) over @Cardinals (3-9), 34-16: L.A. feels dangerous and in serious rebound territory off a disappointing loss to Carolina. And the opponent is just right, with ‘Zona on a four-game losing skid, Rams on a 14-3 series run, and Cards with the most non-existent home field advantage in NFL.

@Chiefs (6-6, -3 1/2) over Texans (7-5), 24-20: A delicious matchup for the prime-time Sunday stage. Houston rides in high off four straight wins including Colts last week. K.C. stumbles in off a Bird Day loss in Dallas and desperate to stay in playoff contention. Chiefs have beaten Texans five straight times but I like ‘em here simply because K-City is a whole different team (5-1) at it’ll-always-be-Arrowhead-to-me. Houston’s fierce defense will make for a great night, but watch Patrick Mahomes find a way.

(Note: Betting lines courtesy DraftKings as of Wednesday afternoon.)

OFF THIS WEEK

— 49ers (9-4; next vs. Titans): Bye-bye, byes! These are season’s last four. Niners dispatched Browns last week and have another softie on deck as they engage in a three-way fight for the top of NFC West.

— Giants (2-11; next vs. Commanders): The G-Men (stands for Glum) are one of five teams already mathematically, scientifically and theologically eliminated from playoff contention.

— Panthers (7-6; next @Saints): Carolina and an impressing Bryce Young coming off a big upset win over L.A. Rams and unexpectedly in a battle to win the NFC South.

— Patriots (11-2; next vs. Bills): New England’s record is NFL’s best-in-show ... but are the Pats really that good? The visit by the Bills next will tell as Buffalo needs the win to stay in AFC East race.