Sam Farmer's Week 14 NFL picks

Los Angeles Times NFL writer Sam Farmer examines the matchups and makes his predictions for Week 14 of the NFL season.

All lines and over/under numbers are according to FanDuel Sportsbook.

Last week, Farmer posted a 11-5 (.688) record. Through the first 13 weeks of the season, he is 130-64 (.670).

Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, his record against the spread in Week 13 would have been 7-9 (.438). For the season, his record against the spread is 98-96 (.505).

All times are Pacific The 49ers, Giants, Panthers, Patriots are off this week.

Cowboys (6-5-1) at Lions (7-5)

Thursday, 5:15.

Line: Lions by 3. O/U: 54 1/2.

Detroit has had problems with interior pressure and the Cowboys do a good job of generating that. The Lions are banged up, having lost Sam LaPorta and with Amon-Ra St. Brown nursing an ankle injury. Dallas has momentum and can take advantage of a leaky Detroit defense.

Pick: Cowboys 31, Lions 26

Seahawks (9-3) at Falcons (4-8)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Seahawks by 7 1/2. O/U: 44 1/2.

The Seahawks didn't play their best yet still shut out Minnesota, getting help from some different places. The No. 1 seed is in play. Atlanta, coming off a demoralizing loss to the Jets, is losing confidence by the week.

Pick: Seahawks 27, Falcons 19

Bengals (4-8) at Bills (8-4)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Bills by 5 1/2. O/U: 52 1/2.

The Buffalo defense tightened up last week, and Cincinnati doesn't have the ground game to exploit the Bills' weakness. Joe Burrow is outstanding, but he's still getting his legs underneath him. Josh Allen gets the nod in this one, especially at home.

Pick: Bills 28, Bengals 22

Colts (8-4) at Jaguars (8-4)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Colts by 1 1/2. O/U: 47 1/2.

After three losses in four games, the Colts are in dire need of a bounce-back performance. The Jaguars often win when the Colts come to town, but this time Indianapolis reverses the trend.

Pick: Colts 26, Jaguars 23

Steelers (6-6) at Ravens (6-6)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Ravens by 5 1/2. O/U: 43 1/2.

The Steelers just gave up 249 yards rushing to Buffalo, the most yards Pittsburgh has surrendered at home in 50 years. Baltimore isn't clicking the way it wants to on offense, but the opportunity to run is there. This rivalry game is always close.

Pick: Ravens 23, Steelers 20

Dolphins (5-7) at Jets (3-9)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Dolphins by 3. O/U: 41 1/2.

The Jets are better with Tyrod Taylor at quarterback and running the offense as designed. Miami is speedy and can exploit New York's defensive soft spots. It will be cold and that might keep the score down.

Pick: Dolphins 23, Jets 17

Titans (1-11) at Browns (3-9)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Browns by 3 1/2. O/U: 33 1/2.

Two struggling teams, so this one won't be pretty. But Cleveland's defense is the difference here. The Browns will have something dialed up for Tennessee's rookie quarterback and this game figures to be hovering around freezing. That's a factor too.

Pick: Browns 20, Titans 14

Commanders (3-9) at Vikings (4-8)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Vikings by 1 1/2. O/U: 42 1/2.

If Washington plays the way it did in Sunday night's overtime game against Denver, with disciplined zone coverage and an efficient offense, it has the edge over a Vikings team struggling to move the ball.

Pick: Commanders 20, Vikings 16

Saints (2-10) at Buccaneers (7-5)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Buccaneers by 8 1/2. O/U: 42 1/2.

The Buccaneers are getting healthier but they're still banged up. There's definitely a sense of urgency after three losses in four games. New Orleans can elevate its game for this rivalry, but Todd Bowles' defense will tilt the scales for the Buccaneers.

Pick: Buccaneers 24, Saints 16

Broncos (10-2) at Raiders (2-10)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m.

Line: Broncos by 7 1/2. O/U: 40 1/2.

Denver's defense is one of the most reliable units in the league right now, and Bo Nix is starting to make plays. The Raiders are overmatched. They can't run the ball, and they can't keep pass rushers off Geno Smith.

Pick: Broncos 27, Raiders 16

Rams (9-3) at Cardinals (3-9)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Rams by 8 1/2. O/U: 48 1/2.

The Cardinals typically have problems with the Rams, and this L.A. team is primed for a bounce-back performance after the Carolina fiasco. Look for Matthew Stafford to get back on track, although the Cardinals will put up a fight.

Pick: Rams 30, Cardinals 21

Bears (9-3) at Packers (8-3-1)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Packers by 6 1/2. O/U: 44 1/2.

Caleb Williams is Houdini, so even when the Packers get to him it won't be easy to get him on the ground. The Packers have been up and down all season. The Packers have won three in a row, but the Bears are even hotter.

Pick: Bears 23, Packers 21

Texans (7-5) at Chiefs (6-6)

Sunday, 5:20 p.m.

Line: Chiefs by 3 1/2. O/U: 42 1/2.

Houston's defense, with the pressure it brings off the edges, is built to exploit Kansas City's protection issues. If C.J. Stroud can turn in a solid performance, the Texans defense can lead the way. The Chiefs have lost three of four.

Pick: Texans 21, Chiefs 19

Eagles (8-4) at Chargers (8-4)

Monday, 5:15 p.m.

Line: Eagles by 2 1/2. O/U: 40 1/2.

Justin Herbert's toughness isn't in question, but it's hard to like the Chargers' reshuffled offensive line against Philadelphia's defensive front. The Eagles are coming off back-to-back losses, but they have the firepower to win this.

Pick: Eagles 26, Chargers 23