American beef lovers may face even leaner plates and higher prices next year as US production shrinks to a decade low and tariffs limit imports, according to a US government projection.

Total beef supply in the US is expected to drop 2.5% in 2026 to 31.1 billion pounds — the lowest since 2019 — the US Department of Agriculture said in a monthly report. The decline threatens to push record beef prices even higher, with tariffs limiting importers’ ability to soften the blow.

US beef supplies have been constrained by a shrinking herd. For years, ranchers have been culling cows due to a combination of persistent drought and high costs, reducing the domestic inventory to its lowest level in several decades.

Record prices for slaughter-weight animals have fueled expectations that ranchers will begin rebuilding the herd in 2026 — but that would tighten supplies even further in the short term, as ranchers would need to retain more females for breeding rather than sending them to processors.

Meanwhile, the Trump administration has slapped hefty tariffs on shipments from Brazil, making supplies from the world’s largest beef exporter more costly.

US beef production is expected to fall 1.8% to 25.5 billion pounds next year, the lowest since 2016, while imports are projected to decline 6.1% to 4.95 billion pounds, according to the USDA. Both forecasts were revised lower from last month.

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