John Romano: What's next for the Rays? Grab a seat because there is no end in sight.
Published in Baseball
ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — Once again, we are on the precipice. Inches from calamity and miles from comfort.
The decision by Rays owner Stuart Sternberg to pull out of a once-rejoiced plan to build a new baseball stadium in St. Petersburg has upended a major redevelopment project for the city and left the team’s future in Tampa Bay in doubt.
And perhaps you’re OK with that.
If you weren’t in favor of committing public funds to a ballpark or you had grown unhappy with Sternberg’s stewardship of the team, this probably sounds like good news. And that may turn out to be true.
But there is a careful-what-you-wish-for element to this.
There might be a happy ending with a new ownership group, but only if Sternberg is willing to sell. And there might be a stadium built near Ybor City, but that is far from guaranteed. And the Trop site will be redeveloped, but it might lack the anchor attraction that was deemed critical.
So how did we end up here?
The simplest explanation is team ownership got cold feet. While the Rays celebrated the culmination of the deal last summer, Sternberg was still unsure a new stadium would generate enough revenue to make the team’s $700 million commitment to stadium construction worthwhile.
The October hurricanes, and subsequent delay in starting construction, not only added to the financial burden but also seemed to remind the Rays that the lease agreement made them — and not the city — responsible for the stadium’s upkeep, which includes hurricane insurance.
Upon further review, the Rays decided the deal was no longer advantageous.
And now we are back in baseball purgatory with a bundle of questions and not enough viable answers.
For instance:
— What about commissioner Rob Manfred’s statement? Hasn’t he all but said Major League Baseball belongs here? Didn’t he reiterate that by strongly endorsing Tampa Bay on Thursday?
Absolutely, that’s all true. And it’s certainly good to hear. But, once upon a time, Manfred made a similar promise to Oakland.
“I am committed to Oakland as a major league site,” Manfred told baseball writers at the 2016 All-Star Game. “If we were to leave Oakland, I think 10 years from now, we would be more likely than not looking backward, saying we made a mistake.
“Oakland is more likely than not to be a better market five years from now than it is today. So I certainly have not given up on Oakland.”
The Athletics are now on their way to Las Vegas with a stopover in Sacramento.
— Yes, but aren’t there local ownership groups that could buy the Rays and keep them in Tampa Bay?
That’s the buzz around town. At least two ownership groups have been identified and there could be more. The groups include some fairly heavy hitters who have previous ties to baseball and other major professional sports.
The problem is the Rays have not committed to selling the team. They’ve gone out of their way to say the team is not formally “For Sale” and they’re already talking about looking forward to the next four years in Tampa Bay until the use agreement at Tropicana Field expires.
MLB officials would certainly prefer if Sternberg sold the team and the stadium situation was resolved because it is currently holding up their plans for expansion — which would be a nice windfall for all 30 owners — but they’re not going to want to devalue their own assets by forcing the Rays to be sold at a less-than exorbitant price.
A recent story in The Athletic suggested MLB could actually pressure the Rays to sell, but that might not be as easy as it sounds. No matter what your feelings are about Sternberg and his executive team today, these are not foolish people. Any attempt to boot them out of baseball could be met with resistance and potential legal ramifications.
— What about Rays president Matt Silverman telling WDAE that he’s hopeful a new stadium plan can be forged in the next four years?
Yeah, good luck with that. The Rays have failed to find common ground with four St. Pete mayors and two Tampa mayors in the past 20 years and have left a trail of animosity in their wake. St. Pete Mayor Ken Welch made it pretty clear on Thursday that he’s done with Sternberg.
“Why would I go back to the same group and trust them this time?” Welch said. “That bridge has been burned.”
Beyond that, in what scenario would the Rays find a deal better than $740 million in public money for construction costs and infrastructure, plus proceeds from the redevelopment of Trop land?
Maybe there’s a scenario where the Rays take on additional investors to privately finance a stadium in Hillsborough County — which is their preferred location — but there’s a reason they’ve never come close to building in Tampa. It was always easier and cheaper to build in St. Pete.
While that’s still true today, Welch is not going to be jilted at the altar again.
And politicians in Hillsborough have always viewed the Rays as a nice commodity but not a necessity. Hard to imagine that mindset has changed in recent years.
— So, what’s the most likely outcome?
Chaos? Rumor? Innuendo? Frustration? Choose your own description.
Two months ago, I wrote that there was a scenario where the Rays pulled out of the stadium deal and let the clock run out on the Tropicana lease. By the end of 2028, the Rays would essentially be free agents. They would also be free to sell the team to investors outside of Tampa Bay.
In that situation, the team’s value would conceivably be much higher than it is today.
Do you think that might be appealing to Sternberg?
The Rays have one of the best farm systems in baseball, and such a scenario would allow Sternberg to remain in control for four highly-competitive seasons before the team’s younger players start commanding larger salaries.
It may not happen that way, but it’s a possibility. Along with several other possibilities.
The Rays have not yet found a deal they like, and they may be facing more roadblocks than ever, but they’re still the ones driving this train.
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