Greg Cote's Week 6 NFL picks

It was our “Worst. Week. Ever.” Thanks to the “Worst. Luck. Ever.” I eschew excuses for a bad week but this one was beyond the pale. A record-tying six teams blew double-digit leads in losing last week — Chiefs, Eagles, Cardinals, Dolphins, Giants and Chargers — and I was on the rotten end of all six. Preposterous! In other words that 4-10 straight-up could easily have flipped and been 10-4. Looking for a payback. Talking to you, Lady Luck. At least I nailed three dogs-with-points (49ers, Bucs, Pats) to help scratch out 7-7 against the bet-line. The comeback begins! [Note: Our Thursday night pick was Eagles (4-1, -7 1/2) over @Giants (1-4), 30-10.]

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— Week 5: 4-10, .286 overall; 7-7, .500 against the spread.

— Season: 45-32, .584 overall; 35-42, .455 against the spread.

— Final 2024: 186-86, .684 overall; 139-128-5, .521 against the spread.

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GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 6 PICKS

GAME OF THE WEEK

UPSET OF THE WEEK

LIONS (4-1) at CHIEFS (2-3)

Line: KC by 1 1/2.

Cote’s pick: DET, 31-27.

TV: 8:20 p.m., NBC.

“AAAWWWK!” roars the Upset Bird. “A rare Game of the Week/Upset of the Week twin bill. Twin baawwk!” It’s the GOTW because pedigreed Kansas City has been in five of past six Super Bowls and won three, while Detroit — though last an NFL champ in pre-SB 1957 — might be the best team in the league right now. Matter of fact, the Sunday night stage gets what is the most likely Super Bowl matchup at the moment — and might be no matter this result. It’s our GOTW pick because the biggest edge in this game goes to Detroit’s No. 1 scoring offense led by Jared Goff to Amon-Ra St. Brown and by great balance, too. KC’s attack has found its stride and is good; the Lions’ is better. Also a slight DET edge from Chiefs being on a short week after playing last Monday, and Lions arriving on a wave of four straight wins. “Catch a wave and you’re sittin’ on top of the world,” notes U-Bird, inexplicably citing a line from an old Beach Boys song. “Catch a waawwk. Detroiaawwk!”

THE REST OF WEEK 6:

Thursday night pick was Eagles (-7 1/2) over @Giants, 30-10.

Broncos (3-2, -6 1/2) over Jets (0-5) in London, 27-13: Londoners, speaking on behalf of America, we apologize in advance for subjecting you to the Jets, the NFL’s last winless team despite coach Aaron Glenn dancing up sidelines to prematurely celebrate. Denver, coming off an upset of Philly, will have overconfidence its biggest threat in the 9:30 a.m. kickoff at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Broncos defense will dominate NYJ’s limited, run-first attack.

@Colts (4-1, -7 1/2) over Cardinals (2-3), 31-17: Arizona coming off a tough week: Embarrassing blown-lead home loss to lowly Titans during which the head coach struck one of his players and got fined 100K. Indy on road a tough place to get well. Daniel Jones, Jonathan Taylor and that big offense won’t be stopped here. Plus Cards QB Kyler Murray (foot) is iffy to play, and it’s a big drop to Jacoby Brissett emerging from mothballs.

Patriots (3-2, -3 1/2) over @Saints (1-4), 24-16: Both teams coming off wins: Patriots’ big Sunday nighter over Buffalo, and Saints handling bad Giants. Biggest threat here to New England might be letdown, but Pats are 2-0 on road as Drake Maye keeps looking more and more like the real deal. Won’t help that Saints’ iffy Alvin Kamara (ankle) faces tough NE run D even if he plays.

@Steelers (3-1, -5 1/2) over Browns (1-4), 30-10: Pittsburgh coming off a bye and Cleveland off a London trip — both factors underlining Steelers’ advantage here. Pitt also has won four straight at home in this rivalry a two-hour drive apart. Steelers‘ defense will make it a tough day for Browns rookie QB Dillon Gabriel in what hints at a rout.

Chargers (3-2, -3 1/2) over @Dolphins (1-4), 27-24: The Bills and Eagles both losing last week left the NFL with no unbeaten teams this year as the 1972 Perfect Season Dolphins had reason to celebrate yet again. Fifty-three years later, Dolphins fans continue searching and waiting for another reason to celebrate something about their team that isn’t ancient history. That isn’t coming this year based on current evidence as 1-4 Miami hosts the L.A. Chargers as a home underdog Sunday. The glaring microcosm, of course: Tua Tagovailoa vs. Justin Herbert, the two QBs inevitable rivals for life after Tagovailoa was taken fifth and Herbert sixth in the 2020 draft. In three past meetings, Tua is 2-1; this is their first clash in Miami since 2020. (Tagovailoa turned up on the injury list this week with left thumb and hip issues, but there was no indication he wouldn’t play.) Both teams here are coming off terrible blown-lead losses, Fins to bad Carolina, Bolts to Washington. For Miami, a loss here would accelerate and raise decibels on talk of tanking and/or firing everybody. Chargers have lost two in a row and struggled on offense; now RB Omarion Hampton is out injured. L.A.’s big edge is on defense, in that theirs is quite good and just about everybody’s is better than Miami’s. I give Fins a fair outright upset shot and a better one to stay close. But with Bolts’ limited ground game and Dolphins’ abysmal-until-you-see-otherwise defense, best bet is a big day from Herbert.

Cowboys (2-2-1, -3 1/2) over @Panthers (2-3), 34-20: Dak Prescott is playing great, and NFL’s fourth highest-scoring offense won’t be stopped in Charlotte. That’s even with CeeDee Lamb (ankle) seeming likely to miss a third straight game. Panthers are 2-0 and tempt with the points, but see a down-to-earth day for RB Rico Dowdle after he made the Dolphins’ run defense look like 11 stationary tackling dummies last week.

Seahawks (3-2, -1 1/2) over @Jaguars (4-1), 27-23: Strong Game of the Week contender finds Seattle 2-0 on the road and Jax 3-0 at home. Still not fully sold on Jags, who needed much good fortune and uncharacteristic Chiefs lapses to win last Monday night. Jacksonville is feasting on an unsustainable amount of defensive takeaways. If Seahawks minds the football here, they win. Seattle is good, their two losses to good teams by seven combined points. Watch them run and control clock vs. a Jags defense allowing 4.6 yards per opponent carry.

Rams (3-2, -7 1/2) over @Ravens (1-4), 23-21: It’s not easy to quit on Baltimore. That’s why the Ravens — even at 1-4 and a big Week 6 dog — are remarkably still betting faves (slightly over Pittsburgh) to win the AFC North. I would give Crows a fair outright upset shot here if Lamar Jackson were playing, but it seemed Thursday he was likely to sit out again with a sore hamstring. Even with shaky backup Cooper Rush again, I like BAL to find a way to stay close at home with a bounce back effort defensively after last week’s 44-10 home embarrassment.

@Raiders (1-4, -3 1/2) over Titans (1-4), 19-13: Two bad teams collide in a matchup that makes me wish we still had a Dog of the Week game. Titans were gifted that win by Arizona last week. Vegas beats itself with Geno Smith interceptions. Somebody gotta win. (Right?) Roll dice with Vegas at home vs. worst team in league.

@Packers (2-1-1, -14 1/2) over Bengals (2-3), 28-16: Newly acquired Cincy QB Joe Flacco starts Sunday five days after his trade from Cleveland. In Week 3 he “led” the Browns to a 13-10 upset of Green Bay, though his defense won that game. The Bengals’ D won’t do the same. No Flacco miracle coming against a Packers team strong at home and off a bye week. Still, point spread feels fat even for what seems a mismatch.

@Buccaneers (4-1, -2 1/2) over 49ers (4-1), 27-23: San Fran’s Brock Purdy appears likely to miss another game with a toe injury. Fill-in QB Mac Jones is capable but also banged up with a hurt knee, though he enjoys added heal time after playing last Thursday. That’s another reason to like Tampa at home in another Game of the Week contender. Both teams are injury-wracked, but I’m on board with the Miracle Mayfield until he gives me reason not to be.

Bills (4-1, -4 1/2) over @Falcons (2-2), 34-23: Might the early of two Monday night games be as competitive as the modest point spread suggests? Atlanta is coming off a bye, and Buffalo off a Sunday night game ... but that’s about the only edge I’d give the Falcons. Matchup hints at a shootout. I like Bijan Robinson vs. a subpar Bills run defense — though Buffs hope to have back DT Ed Oliver, which would be a difference-maker there. But Falcons’ D will be no match for Josh Allen primed to rebound from last week’s loss to Patriots.

@Commanders (3-2, -4 1/2) over Bears (2-2), 30-20: Monday night’s late game finds Chicago off a bye and Washington off a nice rally win over the Chargers. Comms are 2-0 at home and hope to have WR Terry McLaurin (quad) back for a favorable matchup vs. Bears pass D. WAS beat CHI last year on a Jayden Daniels last-second Hail Mary, but revenge is overrated. Daniels is back healthy and figures for a big night.

(Note: Betting lines courtesy ESPNBet as of Thursday mid-afternoon.)

OFF THIS WEEK

— Texans (2-3); next @Seahawks: Houston won big at Baltimore for a second straight W after a horrible start to season but is still peddling hard to stay with Indy and Jax in AFC South. Tough one on deck at Seattle on a Monday night.

— Vikings (3-2); next vs. Eagles: Minnesota beat Cleveland in London and deserves the rest after two straight games in the U.K. Vikes in the thick of competitive NFC North but champ Eagles up next opens a difficult three-game stretch.