Greg Cote's Week 10 NFL picks

We’re coming off a decent Week 9, which, in this season’s rugged climb, is a good thing. I’ll take the 10-4 outright, and any percentage against the spread that starts with a ‘5’. ATS should-a been better, though, as we nailed both of our outright upset picks (!) with Bills beating Chiefs and Broncos winning at Texans. Also had Steelers-with-points covering over Indy. We’ve kicked off the second half of the NFL regular season with Week 10 of 18. Lots of climbing yet to do, but lots of leg left! Let’s go! [Note: Our Thursday night pick was @Broncos (7-2, -9 1/2) over Raiders (2-6), 24-17.]

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— Week 9: 10-4, .714 overall; 7-7, .500 against the spread.

— Season: 84-50, .627 overall; 65-69, .485 against the spread.

— Final 2024: 186-86, .684 overall; 139-128-5, .521 against the spread.

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GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 10 PICKS

GAME OF THE WEEK

EAGLES (6-2) at PACKERS (5-2-1)

Line: GB by 2 1/2.

Cote’s pick: GB, 24-21.

TV: 8:15 p.m. Monday, ABC/ESPN.

There are a handful of GOTW-caliber contests in Week 10, but a Monday night at Lambeau Field is always a stout tiebreaker for us, especially with Frozen Tundra vibes from temps forecast in the high 20s and a chance of flurries. Even without all that window dressing, this is two division-leading teams, a premier QB matchup in Jalen Hurts vs. Jordan Love — and with the Pack hungry to replace the foul taste of last week’s shocking home loss to Carolina. I think they will, even with Philly arriving off a bye. Saquon Barkley (groin) and A.J. Brown (hamstring ) both might be playing through injuries, and facing a Gee Bees D strong both vs. air and ground. Birds expect to showcase the debut of new pass rusher Jaelan Phillips, the ex-Dolphin, but see him as decent add more than a difference-maker. Phils on a 9-0 run vs. NFC North, but, sometimes, the trend must end. Green Bay has tended to play up or down to its opponents, so figure we’ll witness the Good Pack unfurl at see-your-breath Lambeau.

UPSET OF THE WEEK

BROWNS (2-6) at JETS (1-7)

Line: CLE by 2 1/2.

Cote’s pick: NYJ, 19-17.

TV: 1 p.m., CBS.

“AAAWWWK!” bellows the Upset Bird. “Are we actually picking the New York Jaawwk!?” We are, and, scarier still, we talked ourselves into NYJ after gut instinct first said Browns. That’s a superstitious no-no for us, but here we go. Welcome to the MMOTW: the Moribund Matchup of the W-e-ak, with two of the seven teams slogging at 1 or 2 wins in lost seasons. The best thing on the field will be Myles Garrett and Cleveland’s defense, and yet I’m still feeling it for Planes on the home tarmac. Jets coach Aaron Glenn has been mum on whether Justin Fields or Tyrod Taylor will start at QB, but not much difference, and either likely will have top WR Garrett Wilson back — a majorly needed boost. Jets went fire sale at the trade deadline, shipping top CB Sauce Gardner to Indy for two first-round picks. Smart play for the future; not so much for now. But Browns don’t have the offense to capitalize. ”Busiest players in this one might be the two punters,” notes U-Bird. “Can you name either? It’s Corey Bojorquez and Austin McNamaraawwk!”

THE REST OF WEEK 10:

Thursday night pick was @Broncos (7-2, -9 1/2) over Raiders (2-6), 24-17.

Colts (7-2, -6 1/2) over Falcons (3-5, 30-17 in Berlin: Sunday’s 9:30 a.m. start marks NFL’s next to last international game of season. “Wir freuen uns darauf, dass Sauce bei uns sein Debüt bei Hengstfohlen geben wird,” says Berlin. (”We look forward that Sauce will debut with Colts for us.”) Indeed, we too hope new CB Sauce Gardner, to Indy in Jets’ trade deadline fire sale, debuts with a delicious matchup vs. ATL’s Drake London. Gardner will if he passes concussion protocol as expected. Germans should see heavy doses of Jonathan Taylor and a big Colts bounceback from last week’s six-turnover calamity in Pittsburgh.

@Bears (5-3, -4 1/2) over Giants (2-7), 27-20: Chitown QB Caleb Williams is enjoying a nice Year 2 bump thanks largely to great run support. Bears’ D got crushed in narrow win over Cincy but won’t face nearly same threat by an NYG squad suffering absence of Cam Skattebo and Malik Nabers. G Men with points a tempting lean, but can’t quite do it.

Ravens (3-5, -4 1/2) over @Vikings (4-4), 26-23: Minny’s upset win in Detroit won’t carry over here, especially with RB Aaron Jones iffy to play. And let’s pump brakes a bit on J.J. McCarthy as all that. Baltimore is sniffing playoffs again with Lamar Jackson back strong as ever (as Dolphins saw last week), and I like L-Jack with extra rest solving Vikes’ blitz-heavy defense. As home dogs off big win, though, Purples feel like a solid buy getting this many points.

@Buccaneers (6-2, -2 1/2) over Patriots (7-2), 24-21: Strong GOTW contender as two division leaders face off in a duel of QBs with magic vibes in Drake Maye vs. Baker Mayfield. Also our toughest call of the week with Pats surfing a six-game win streak and 4-0 on the road, and Tampa maybe without RB Bucky Irving as well as WR Chris Godwin again. Still, Bucs in off a bye, and teams off a bye when opponent is not are 6-0 this season. Give us Vita Vea and that TB D-line and Baker at home.

@Panthers (5-4, -5 1/2) over Saints (1-8), 31-10: Carolina at risk of a natural letdown after big upset win in Green Bay, but wouldn’t worry much. Still not quite buying Cats as playoff-headed, but there may not be worse team in King Sport right now than N’Awlins. Not even Mrs. Shough thinks Tyler Shough is the answer at QB. Watch Cats RB Rico Dowdle only enhance his fantasy-darling status against this sorry foe.

@Texans (3-5, +1 1/2) over Jaguars (5-3), 19-16: Upset! (”Aawwk!”) Pretty interesting AFC South matchup, and I’m feeling the home dogs, thanks. Texans’ C.J. Stroud will sit with a concussion but not sure it’s much drop to Davis Mills, for me a really unheralded QB2. Mostly this call rides with Houston’s superior defense, though we would feel much better if certain that iffy DE Will Anderson Jr. (quad) will play. Do it for me, will ya Will?

Bills (6-2, -9 1/2) over @Dolphins (2-7), 30-23: There is little doubt Miami will lose Sunday. It finds ways to do that this season, Buffalo is The Nemesis, and the Bills arrive in full stride. The question is where the Fins loss will fall on the rout-to-tight scale. Buffs have won seven in a row and 14 of past 15 in this AFC East rivalry, but four of those past seven losses have been by one score, and Miami was capably competitive in a 31-21 September loss in western New York. I see another close loss here as Fins have home field and added rest after playing last Thursday. And it would be human nature for Buffalo, coming off a major win over Kansas City, to face a letdown of sorts vs. an opponent it has dominated throughout the Josh Allen era. That’s part of why I see a close game. Contributing is the foot/ankle injury that has star Bills RB James Cook iffy to play. And I don’t see Miami trading Jaelan Phillips to Philly for a third-round pick as a big deal, except to the degree that trade and the departure of GM Chris Grier hint at a budding rebuild. Also see a motivation edge for Miami here. If the Dolphins are bound to fight hard enough to show palpable support for embattled coach Mike McDaniel, this certainly would be a game to put that on display that. And if Tua Tagovailoa feels any need to convince his growing doubters that he remains the franchise QB in Miami — after a poor showing last week vs. Baltimore that let his defense down — then this, too, would be a pretty great time to show it.

@Seahawks (6-2, -6 1/2) over Cardinals (3-5), 28-20: NFC West rivals both off nice prime-time wins, ‘Zona over Dallas on Monday, Seattle over Washington the night before. Veteran backup Jacoby Brissett starts a fourth straight game for Cardbirds, probably a good thing at this point. Like homies big time, though. Hot ‘Hawks have won eight straight in series, and Sam Darnold-to-Jaxon Smith-Njigba should be unstoppable again.

Rams (6-2, -4 1/2) over @49ers (6-3), 27-23: GOTW candidate between NFC West state rivals finds Kyle Shanahan vs. Sean McVay the rare sideline duel almost as intriguing a chess match as any on the playing field. San Fran is on a 10-4 run in this scrum including a win in L.A. in Week 5, but I like Rams on the payback, Jack. Niners hoping to finally have QB Brock Purdy back is big. Rams expecting WR Puka Nacua (ribs) to play — that’s bigger. But fat line makes it a lean to home dog with points.

Lions (5-3, -8 1/2) over @Commanders (3-6), 31-16: Comms QB Jayden Daniels likely out injured for the season and a bungee-steep drop to journeyman backup Marcus Mariota is a crippling blow to an already struggling team. Bad time to host a Detroit team on a 6-2 run in series, a 10-2 streak the road, and hungry to rebound from last week’s unexpected home pratfall-loss to Minnesota. Lots of points to gift a desperate home-‘dog, but see a big statement win from Dan Campbell’s crew.

@Chargers (6-3, -3 1/2) over Steelers (5-3), 23-20: A slew of Pittsburgh fans expected in L.A. may make you wonder whose home game it is on a Sunday prime-time stage gifted another GOTW-quality matchup in a week full of ‘em. Give Pitt a legit outright-upset shot as T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith mean to feast on a Bolts O-line missing difference-making OT Joe Alt. But Steelers off big win over Indy are inconsistent enough to make you envision a stumble here, too. I’ll take Justin Herbert to find a way at home, but take that extra half-point on the line to lean Steelers on the cover.

(Note: Betting lines courtesy ESPNBet as of Thursday mid-afternoon.)

OFF THIS WEEK

— Bengals (3-6, next @Steelers): Consecutive winnable home losses to Jets and then Bears have plundered Cincy’s fragile hope based on QB Joe Burrow’s expected mid-December return with four games left. It’ll be all but way too late by then.

— Chiefs (5-4, next @Broncos): Loss at Bills hurt, with trip to Denver then a visit by Indy up next. Don’t write ‘em off yet — too soon — but Team Mahomes right now teeters on the anxious end of the AFC playoff race.

— Cowboys (3-5-1, next @Raiders): The tragic sudden death of Dallas DE Marshawn Kneeland at age 24 on Thursday reportedly from a self-inflicted gunshot wound drapes a terrible pall on Cowboys’ bye week. Death came three days after Kneeland scored his first NFL touchdown on a blocked punt in the end zone in a home loss to Arizona. Thoughts and sympathy to the Cowboys and to all who knew and loved Kneeland.

— Titans (1-8, next vs. Texans): Home loss to Chargers (yes, all four bye teams lost last week) leaves Tennessee one of three teams in the one-win mud as struggling rookie ex-Canes QB Cam Ward pays those proverbial dues.