Sam Farmer's Week 10 NFL picks
Published in Football
Los Angeles Times NFL writer Sam Farmer examines the matchups and makes his predictions for Week 10 of the NFL season.
All lines and over/under numbers are according to FanDuel Sportsbook.
Last week, Farmer posted a 10-4 (.714) record. Through the first nine weeks of the season, he is 88-47 (.652).
Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, his record against the spread in Week 9 would have been 6-8 (.423). For the season, his record against the spread is 67-68 (.496).
All times are Pacific. The Bengals, Chiefs, Cowboys and Titans are off.
Raiders (2-6) at Broncos (7-2)
Thursday, 5:15.
Line: Broncos by 9 1/2. O/U: 42 1/2.
The Broncos' defense is elite up front, leading the league in sacks by a wide margin. Bo Nix has become a steady closer, and Denver's offense is showing balance. Expect the Raiders to hang around before fading late.
Pick: Broncos 27, Raiders 17
Falcons (3-5) vs. Colts (7-2)
Sunday, 6:30 a.m.
Line:Colts by 6 1/2. O/U: 48 1/2.
The Falcons' offense continues to sputter with turnovers and missed chances, while the Colts' ground game and physicality give them an edge in Berlin. Indianapolis figures to bounce back after a sloppy loss.
Pick: Colts 28, Falcons 23
Giants (2-7) at Bears (5-3)
Sunday, 10 a.m.
Line: Bears by 3 1/2. O/U: 47 1/2.
The Giants play hard defensively but lack firepower, whereas the Bears' young offense keeps improving. Chicago's pass rush will make the difference at home, especially with the Giants lacking weapons.
Pick: Bears 24, Giants 20
Bills (6-2) at Dolphins (2-7)
Sunday, 10 a.m.
Line: Bills by 9 1/2. O/U: 49 1/2.
The Bills found new life coming off their bye, while Miami continues to struggle in big games. Expect Buffalo to control both lines of scrimmage, and Josh Allen will find ways to punch holes in that defense.
Pick: Bills 34, Dolphins 21
Ravens (3-5) at Vikings (4-4)
Sunday, 10 a.m.
Line: Ravens by 4 1/2. O/U: 47 1/2.
The Vikings are starting to click behind rookie quarterback JJ McCarthy. Huge win over Detroit on Sunday. But Lamar Jackson and the Ravens' balance on offense prove too much in a tight one.
Pick: Ravens 28, Vikings 24
Browns (2-6) at Jets (1-7)
Sunday, 10 a.m.
Line: Browns by 2 1/2. O/U: 37 1/2.
Both defenses dominate, and points will be hard to come by. Cleveland's defensive front and run game tilt the field just enough against a Jets team coming off its only win.
Pick: Browns 14, Jets 10
Patriots (7-2) at Buccaneers (6-2)
Sunday, 10 a.m.
Line: Buccaneers by 2 1/2. O/U: 48 1/2.
The Patriots are finding ways to win but still make too many mistakes. Second-year quarterback Drake Maye is terrific. Tampa Bay, rested and healthier after a bye, edges New England behind a balanced attack.
Pick: Buccaneers 28, Patriots 24
Saints (1-8) at Panthers (5-4)
Sunday, 10 a.m.
Line: Panthers by 5 1/2. O/U: 39 1/2.
The Panthers have quietly found consistency with or without Bryce Young at quarterback and an opportunistic defense. The Saints, once in the "buy now" phase, are currently in the "pay later" phase.
Pick: Panthers 27, Saints 21
Jaguars (5-3) at Texans (3-5)
Sunday, 10 a.m.
Line: Texans by 1 1/2. O/U: 38 1/2.
Quarterback Davis Mills can't keep pace with a confident Jaguars defense that's playing at a high level. Jacksonville is coming off a one-point win over the shaky Raiders, but should pick up this road victory.
Pick: Jaguars 23, Texans 17
Cardinals (3-5) at Seahawks (6-2)
Sunday, 1:05 p.m.
Line: Seahawks by 6 1/2. O/U: 45 1/2.
The Seahawks are emerging as a dark-horse contender to go deep in the playoffs, playing tough defense and moving the ball efficiently. The Cardinals' quarterback carousel continues to sink the team.
Pick: Seahawks 34, Cardinals 20
Rams (6-2) at 49ers (6-3)
Sunday, 1:25 p.m.
Line: Rams by 3 1/2. O/U: 50 1/2.
Matthew Stafford stays hot and leads a statement win over the Niners. Even with Christian McCaffrey rolling, the Rams' defense rises late. Still, out-coaching Kyle Shanahan would be a feat.
Pick: Rams 27, 49ers 23
Lions (5-3) at Commanders (3-6)
Sunday, 1:25 p.m.
Line: Lions by 8 1/2. O/U: 49 1/2.
The Commanders' offense figures to crumble after losing their starting quarterback, and Marcus Mariota can't consistently sustain drives. Detroit bounces back strong from a loss, and rolls.
Pick: Lions 34, Commanders 20
Steelers (5-3) at Chargers (6-3)
Sunday, 5:20 p.m.
Line: Chargers by 3. O/U: 45 1/2.
The Steelers' turnover luck runs out against a healthier Chargers team. Even without Joe Alt, and the offensive line constantly in flux, Justin Herbert does enough to protect home turf.
Pick: Chargers 27, Steelers 24
Eagles (6-2) at Packers (5-2-1)
Monday, 5:15 p.m.
Line: Packers by 2 1/2. O/U: 44 1/2.
The Eagles have won two in a row, and seem to be on fairly stable ground. The Packers respond to last Sunday's letdown versus Carolina with renewed focus. Go with the more seasoned quarterback.
Pick: Eagles 24, Packers 21
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