Greg Cote's NFL wild-card playoff picks

Our 34th year of NFL picks in the Miami Herald did not set any personal records, put it that way. Or even top our previous year’s totals for that matter. An unusually unpredictable season on the field showed in our picks as we managed a just-OK .646 overall but narrowly failed to top .500 against the spread — a huge downer. Week 18 reflected that. We nailed a trio of ‘dogs-with-points on covers by the Steelers, Saints and Colts but had too many surrounding misfires. The consolation? The opportunity now to roll a perfect 13-0 in the postseason starting here!

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— Week 18: 9-7, .563 overall; 7-9, .438 against the spread.

— Final season: 175-96, .646 overall; 131-135-5, .493 against the spread.

— Final 2024: 186-86, .684 overall; 139-128-5, .521 against the spread.

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GREG COTE’S NFL WILD-CARD PLAYOFF PICKS

King Sport, indeed

I’ve referred to NFL as “King Sport” for years, and there’s fresh corroboration. League finished 2025 regular season with average viewership of 18.7 million per game — up 10% from last year and highest total since 1989. Season saw across-the-board gains in every broadcast window and for all rights-holding networks and streaming services. Also verified this season: The importance of the quarterback. Twelve of 14 playoff teams have starting QBs who were drafted in the first round and one in second. Only outlier: San Fran’s Brock Purdy in the seventh round.

AFC playoffs

No. 6 seed BILLS (12-5) at No. 3 JAGUARS (13-4)

Line: BUF by 1 1/2.

Cote’s pick: JAC, 28-24.

TV: 1 p.m. Sunday, CBS.

Winner of Sunday’s early game will face Patriots-Chargers survivor in next round. Rare to find a higher-seeded home team on an eight-game win streak getting points in the playoffs but here we are with Jax. Why? Because public perception drives point spreads and old habits die hard. We still can’t quite believe the oft-lowly Jaguars are this good, can we? And we still trust Josh Allen to carry his Bills, right? Teams did not play this season, but what I saw from these two was a flawed Buffalo roster and a complete J’Ville team deserving better than the disrespect of this betting line. Time for Jags to earn their respect. If the Bills’ and Allen’s Super Bowl window doesn’t shut completely here, it will close to a crack. Upset! Duuvaaalll.

No. 7 CHARGERS (11-6) at No. 2 PATRIOTS (14-3)

Line: NE by 3 1/2.

Cote’s pick: NE, 30-17.

TV: 8 p.m. Sunday, NBC/Peacock.

Winner of this Sunday prime-time game will face the Jaguars or Bills next. I’m not big on New England as being as scary good as its record. The Pats’ schedule was relatively soft compared to some. Drake Maye in his playoff debut and that Mike Vrabel defense are good ... but not Super. Still, I like New England at home on a January night over the dome team from sunny Cali. Chargers have lost 12 of past 15 trips to Foxborough. Two solid defenses here, but Bolts have a middling offense and a beat-up O-line that (quite literally) hurts an always under-siege Justin Herbert. Watch Herbert fall to 0-3 in the playoffs as LAC won’t be able to keep pace with Maye — who has leaped a QB tier above Herbert — and the NFL’s No. 2-ranked scoring offense.

No. 5 TEXANS (12-5) at No. 4 STEELERS (10-7)

Line: HOU by 3.

Cote’s pick: HOU, 23-16.

TV: 8:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN/ABC.

This game wraps up the playoffs’ first round on Monday night, with the winner earning the right to visit top-seeded Denver. Aaron Rodgers and Pittsburgh needed the lottery luck of a missed chip-shot field goal to back into the playoffs over a bad Baltimore defense. Now, creaking-old Rodgers faces a really good Houston D that will make his night miserable. Texans have won nine games in a row and are on a 5-1 run on the road, because great defense travels and wins anywhere. I’m still not fully sold on C.J. Stroud, and I very much doubt Houston’s chances of advancing in the postseason beyond this game. But in this matchup, despite the mystique of Mike Tomlin as a home dog, against this D, Rodgers and his limited offense stand little chance.

— BYE: No. 1 BRONCOS (14-3; next vs. Steelers-Texans winner) — Can Bo Nix and NFL’s third-stingiest defense win it all? Denver is AFC betting favorite to reach Super Bowl but only third-favorite overall to win it.

NFC playoffs

No. 5 seed RAMS (12-5) at No. 4 PANTHERS (8-9)

Line: LAR by 10 1/2.

Cote’s pick: LAR, 27-20.

TV: 4:30 p.m. Saturday, Fox.

This Saturday game kicks off wild-card weekend, with the winner here traveling to face top-seed Seattle next week. And that most assuredly will be the L.A. Rams barring the biggest shocker of the weekend. Getting 10 1/2 points Carolina is the biggest playoff home underdog in NFL betting history. Panthers were similar dogs this past Nov. 30 but upset the Rams 31-28, parlaying a pick-6 TD. Don’t expect a repeat. Carolina needed luck to back into the playoffs despite two straight losses and is by far the biggest Super Bowl betting underdog of the 14 teams in the SB tourney. I’m buying big on Matthew Stafford outperforming Bryce Young in his playoff debut. Still, pumped-up Cats at home getting double digits make it a strong lean to Carolina on the cover.

No. 7 PACKERS (9-7-1) at No. 2 BEARS (11-6)

Line: GB by 1 1/2.

Cote’s pick: GB, 23-20.

TV: 8 p.m. Saturday, Prime Video.

Saturday’s prime-time contest is the lone division rivalry of the six first-round games, with the winner facing the Eagles or 49ers next. Chitown and GeeBees split during season, Pack winning 28-21 Dec. 7, and Bears taking it 22-16 in overtime Dec. 30. (Chicago’s win, though, was a second-half rally after Jordan Love was sidelined by a concussion.) Neither team arrives in top form, Pack on a four-game losing streak and Bears after two straight L’s. Toughest call of the week for me, but I can’t ignore series dominance that has seen Green Bay win 14 of past 16 trips to The Soldier. Also trust Love more than I do Caleb Williams in his playoff debut. Big edge to Packers’ defense, too, even without Micah Parsons.

No. 6 49ERS (12-5) at No. 3 EAGLES (11-6)

Line: PHI by 5 1/2.

Cote’s pick: PHI, 24-20.

TV: 4:30 p.m. Sunday, Fox.

Sunday’s middle game finds the winner facing the Packers or Bears next. Reigning-champ Eagles have spent whole season being told they aren’t as good this year, yet here they are. For all its offensive underperforming, Philly‘s defense will be the best unit on the field in this game. Birds also are on a 16-3 run at home, though Niners have been solid on the road (7-2) and have won past six straight meetings with foes from NFC East. San Fran’s offense got dominated in embarrassing 13-3 home loss to Seattle last week, and I expect a response from Brock Purdy and crew. Don’t see an outright upset (though it wouldn’t shock me), but the bet-line is feeling a bit plump and I’m leaning Frans getting 5 1/2.

— BYE : No. 1 SEAHAWKS (14-3, next vs. Panthers-Rams winner) — Defense-led Seattle on a seven-game win streak is the favorite to win the Super Bowl at +330 (per DraftKings). But will Sam Darnold turnovers get in the way?

(Note: Betting lines courtesy DraftKings as of midday Thursday.)