Sam Farmer's NFL wild-card picks

Sam Farmer, Los Angeles Times on Jan 8, 2026

Published in Football

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Los Angeles Times NFL writer Sam Farmer examines the matchups and makes his predictions for the NFL wild-card playoffs.

All lines and over/under numbers are according to FanDuel Sportsbook.

Last week, Farmer posted a 9-7 (.563) record. He posted a 173-99 (.636) record over the regular season.

Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, his record against the spread in Week 18 would have been 6-10 (.375). For the season, his record against the spread is 126-146 (.463).

All times are Pacific and TV reflects broadcasts in the Los Angeles area.

No. 5 Rams at No. 4 Panthers

Saturday, 1:30 p.m. TV: Fox, Fox Deportes.

Line: Rams by 10 1/2. O/U: 46 1/2.

Is there a downside to the Panthers beating the Rams earlier this season? Well, the Rams aren't going to be taken by surprise the same way, and they're going to do a better job of protecting the football. Carolina, which has lost three of four, is as favorable a matchup for the Rams as they could want. Barring something weird, this game shouldn't be that close.

Pick: Rams 28, Panthers 17

No. 7 Packers at No. 2 Bears

Saturday, 5 p.m. TV: Amazon Prime.

Line: Packers by 1 1/2. O/U: 45 1/2.

Although these NFC North rivals split during the regular season, Green Bay won six of those eight quarters. The Packers have lost four in a row, but they're getting Jordan Love back and that could be the difference maker. The Bears have minimal pass rush, have trouble stopping the run — actually both teams do — and tend to give up big plays.

Pick: Packers 21, Bears 18

No. 6 Bills at No. 3 Jaguars

Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: CBS, Paramount+.

Line: Bills by 1 1/2. O/U: 51 1/2.

Josh Allen is phenomenal, but the Jaguars are probably the AFC's most complete team. They are riding an eight-game winning streak, and Trevor Lawrence is playing the way Jacksonville always hoped he would. Maybe Buffalo is a team of destiny, but this feels like an ambush in waiting. Should be fairly high-scoring, and the Jaguars win down the stretch with a kick.

Pick: Jaguars 30, Bills 27

No. 6 49ers at No. 3 Eagles

Sunday, 1:30 p.m. TV: Fox, Fox Deportes.

Line: Eagles by 4 1/2. O/U: 44 1/2.

It's really tough to keep pace with the 49ers when their offense is clicking, and San Francisco didn't punt in December. That Week 18 loss to Seattle was a different story, though, with the 49ers scoring just three points and punting four times. Philadelphia's running game could be the big difference here, as San Francisco will struggle to stop it, especially with fresh injuries at linebacker.

Pick: Eagles 24, 49ers 20

No. 7 Chargers at No. 2 Patriots

Sunday, 5 p.m. TV: NBC, Peacock, Universo.

Line: Patriots by 3 1/2. O/U: 46 1/2.

Justin Herbert has been a warrior this season, playing behind a patchwork offensive line that's in near-constant rotation and with no consistent running game. The Chargers are capable of pulling off an upset, but a more likely scenario has the Patriots stopping the run in the bitter cold and piling everything on the shoulders of the Chargers quarterback. New England has to like its odds.

Pick: Patriots 28, Chargers 24

No. 5 Texans at No. 4 Steelers

Monday, 5:15 p.m. TV: ABC, ESPN, ESPN Deportes.

Line: Texans by 3. O/U: 39 1/2.

Almost every fiber says to take Houston here, because the Texans have the best defense in the league, and 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers is going to have real difficulties moving the ball. But the Texans have never won a playoff game on the road, and Pittsburgh is often at its best in Monday night games. Yes, it's a new year, but don't count out the Steelers at home.

Pick: Steelers 21, Texans 20