Omar Kelly: Is Malik Willis worth his proposed price tag?

MIAMI — Know that moment when you have found an item you would like to possibly purchase, then your eyes nearly pop out your head looking at the price tag?

You have been hit with sticker shock, and immediately rush to put the overpriced item down.

That seemed to be Jon-Eric Sullivan and Jeff Hafley’s reaction to the asking price on quarterback Malik Willis at the NFL Combine based on the dots we can connect.

The Miami Dolphins’ new circle of trust openly praised Willis in front of every microphone placed in front of them. They discussed how happy they were for the Green Bay Packers backup being in this position to make a massive career and financial come-up. But the Dolphins’ newly appointed general manager and head coach also dropped a ton of hints that they don’t expect Willis to be in their price range.

And that was done intentionally, for one reason or another.

Willis and his representatives are looking for Mercedes G-Wagon money and the Dolphins, which have less than $1 million in cap space heading into next Tuesday’s start of the legal free agent bidding process [last week was the illegal bidding], barely have the money for a gently used Honda Passport.

However, even if Miami did have the finances [say $8 million in cap space] to make a Justin Fields type of deal for Willis — offering to pay him $40 million during the next two seasons, with $30 million of it being guaranteed — I don’t believe they should because the sample size of Willis shining on an NFL field is too small.

He has thrown all of 155 NFL passes in four years, and has stumbled at every turn since exiting high school.

Willis was hyped as a first-round talent in the 2022 draft, but got selected in the third round by the Tennessee Titans because he was small, played at a small school [Liberty] after transferring there because he lost a quarterback battle at Auburn to Bo Nix, who is now the Denver Broncos starter, and played exclusively in a shotgun offense in college.

At Tennessee, he struggled mightily. So much so the Titans replaced him with Will Levis, who by the way is also available via a trade, and then traded Willis to the Green Bay Packers for a 2025 seventh-round pick.

In Green Bay, Willis settled into a West Coast offense, benefited from good coaching and shined in his limited opportunities the past two seasons. But we’re really talking about six games, and that limited sample size shouldn’t equate to a $100 million contract.

I have watched every offensive snap of those six games, and while I admit there’s some intrigue to Willis, who has above average athleticism, and a solid arm, I believe he’s a slow processor, one who was propped up by the talent around him, and used his scrambling ability as a cheat code.

While utilizing his legs to convert first downs and scramble for touchdowns is in vogue with today’s NFL game, the only time that style has had staying power is when the quarterback’s the size of Cam Newton or Josh Allen, passers who are both 6-foot-5, 240-ish pounds, do it.

And even with them the hits eventually add up.

Willis is 6-1, 225 pounds, which coincidentally or not, is the exact same size as Tua Tagovailoa, who by the way was the consensus No. 1 rated dual-threat quarterback back in 2017 when he was playing high school football in Hawaii.

You know what happened to Tagovailoa? Over the time the hits he took accumulated, and he lost those wheels, and became skittish to contact.

What becomes of Willis when/if the same happens to him?

These Dolphins decision-makers — Sullivan and Hafley — got to watch Willis 10 times more than any other NFL team because they watched him for every practice in Green Bay.

Willis spent every week he wasn’t working as a starter preparing Hafley’s defense for its opponents, so if anyone knows what he’s capable of it’s Sullivan and Hafley.

Hell, the former Titans general manager, Jon Robinson, the individual who selected Willis 86th overall in the 2022 NFL draft, is now part of the Dolphins organization as a senior personnel executive, so the new Dolphins circle of trust possesses more information than anyone can possibly need to make this critical decision.

So, they better get it right one way or another.

Either route they take — going all in on Willis, or standing down — Sullivan and Hafley will be judged by this decision, especially if Willis delivers for his next team and becomes a top 15 quarterback for the next six or more seasons.

But what happens if he’s the next Brock Osweiler, the last backup quarterback paid big money by a new team to become a starter before they discovered he was a fraud?

This decision could be brought up every time his name is mentioned, much like Miami’s two whiffs at Drew Brees, a soon-to-be Hall of Fame quarterback whom the Dolphins passed on selecting in the first round of the 2001 draft because they took disappointing cornerback Jamar Fletcher, and then backed out of an offer on him as a free agent in 2006 because of concerns about his surgically repaired throwing shoulder.

If we’re being honest, these are the types of decisions that define a regime, and have handcuffed the Dolphins franchise.

We will quickly learn what Sullivan and Hafley are made of based on how they handle this decision, and replacing Tagovailoa, who most in the NFL expect to be released with a June 1 designation in March.

Are they shred shoppers, able to find bargains and deals, or do they follow trends and pay full price for what’s in style?

One way or another, we will learn plenty about the Dolphins based on how they handle Willis’ bidding.

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