Tropical Storm Erin forms, forecast to become major hurricane, NHC says

Richard Tribou and Garfield Hylton, Orlando Sentinel on Aug 11, 2025

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ORLANDO, Fla. — Tropical Storm Erin formed in the eastern tropical Atlantic on Monday morning and is forecast to grow into a major hurricane by the weekend, according to the National Hurricane Center.

As of the NHC’s 11 a.m. Eastern time update, the newly formed storm was located about 280 miles west of the island chain and 2,305 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands of the Caribbean moving west at 20 mph with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. Tropical-storm-force winds extend out 35 miles.

“This motion is expected to continue for the next several days,” forecasters said. “Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next several days.”

The long-range forecast from the NHC has it intensifying into what would be the season’s first hurricane with 80 mph sustained winds, making it a Category 1 hurricane, by Wednesday night.

The forecast also predicts it will grow into a major Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph sustained winds by Saturday night with the cone of uncertainty encompassing a wide swath in the Atlantic just northeast of the Leeward Islands.

Heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to drop across portions of the Cape Verde Islands today.

The National Weather Service in Melbourne said it was too early to determine if there would be any Florida impacts.

“We are entering peak hurricane season. Use this time to ensure you are prepared ahead of any threats,” forecasters said.

The NHC was also tracking two other Atlantic systems, but both with just a 10% chance to develop in the next to days.

One in the central Atlantic was a weak trough of low pressure with limited shower and thunderstorm activity.

“Significant development of this system is becoming unlikely over the next few days as the system drifts generally northward, remaining over the central Atlantic,” forecasters said.

The second, newly tracked on Monday morning, was a a nontropical area of low pressure a few hundred miles to the south-southeast of Nova Scotia, Canada.

“While current shower and thunderstorm activity with the system is limited, this system is drifting over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream where some tropical or subtropical development could occur over the next day or two,” forecasters said. “By the middle of this week, the system is expectedto move northward over cooler waters, ending its changes for further tropical development.”

After Erin, the next names on the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season would be Fernand and Gabrielle.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration this week updated its season forecast now calling for 13-18 named storms for the year, of which five to nine would grow into hurricanes. Two to five of those would develop into major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher.

The height of hurricane season runs from mid-August into October.

The entire six-month season runs June 1 to Nov. 30.

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