Tropical Storm Erin surges through Atlantic with Caribbean islands now at risk, NHC says

Richard Tribou, Orlando Sentinel on Aug 12, 2025

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Tropical Storm Erin on Tuesday continued to push west through the Atlantic with the National Hurricane Center still forecasting it to become a major hurricane, and Puerto Rico and other Caribbean islands now within the projected path.

As of the NHC’s 11 a.m. Eastern time update, the center of Erin was located about 1,765 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands of the Caribbean moving west at 23 mph with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. Tropical-storm-force winds extend out 35 miles.

“This general motion is expected to continue through early Thursday,” said NHC Warning Coordination Meteorologist Robbie Berg. “Little change in strength is expected through tonight, but gradual strengthening is forecast to begin on Wednesday. Erin could become a hurricane by late Thursday.”

While there are no watches or warnings in place, the NHC stated the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico should monitor Erin’s progress.

“The general motion should be westward through early Thursday. After that time, indications are that the ridge may weaken over the western and central Atlantic, causing Erin to turn west-northwestward, but there are model discrepancies on when that might happen and where the break in the ridge actually forms,” Berg said.

The forecast from the NHC has it intensifying into what would be the season’s first hurricane with 75 mph sustained winds, making it a Category 1 hurricane.

“The environment and water temperatures become much more suitable for strengthening by 48 hours, and since the cyclone already has a well-defined structure, it could become a hurricane by late Thursday,” Berg said. “Continued strengthening is forecast after that time, and the NHC forecast continues to show Erin becoming a major hurricane by day 5 (early Sunday). There is quite a lot of spread in the intensity models, and the NHC prediction is in the upper regime of the envelope.”

The forecast predicts it will grow into a major Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph sustained winds and gusts of 140 mph by Sunday morning with the cone of uncertainty encompassing a wide swath in the Atlantic that includes the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Winds could potentially be felt in the islands beginning Friday night.

The National Weather Service in Melbourne said it was too early to determine if there would be any Florida impacts.

“We are entering peak hurricane season. Use this time to ensure you are prepared ahead of any threats,” forecasters said.

Computer modeling forecast tracks from Monday mostly show the storm veering to the north before it would threaten the U.S. but patterns can change.

The NHC also is tracking one other Atlantic system and a system in the Gulf.

As of the NHC’s 8 a.m. tropical outlook, the Atlantic system had only a 10% chance of development and the Gulf system had 0% percent chance, but forecasters warned of tropical rainfall over the Gulf coast.

The surface trough that was near the coast of Louisiana had a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

“While development of this system is not anticipated before it moves inland later today, locally heavy rainfall could produce flash flooding across portions of the northern Gulf coast over the next day or so,” forecasters said.

The remaining system was a nontropical area of low pressure a few hundred miles southeast of Nova Scotia, Canada, with disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.

“Some limited tropical or subtropical development is possible over the next day or so as the low meanders near the relatively warm waters of the Gulf Stream,” forecasters said. “The system is expected to move northward over cooler waters by Wednesday, ending its chances for tropical development.”

After Erin, the next names on the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season would be Fernand and Gabrielle.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration last week updated its season forecast now calling for 13 to 18 named storms for the year, of which five to nine would grow into hurricanes. Two to five of those would develop into major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher.

The height of hurricane season runs from mid-August into October while the entire six-month season runs June 1 to Nov. 30.

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